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There’s been a few interesting happenings recently, none of which are directly related not point to anything specific in terms of Saab’s future, but all of which could be possibly drawn together by a conspiracy theorist blogger like me.
1. The North American International Motor Show
The NAIAS kicks off this Sunday, January 11, with the first of the press preview days. It’s hard to believe it’s a full 12 months since I was there.
It’s nice to see the animation for the show finishes with an image of the Saab 9-4x from last year.
My conspiracy query about the NAIAS is as follows: Why so quiet?
In the last few weeks I’ve emailed Saab Sweden and Saab Australia about a couple of queries I had and just to get a general idea of what’s going on (a-la the interviews I did wth Eric Geers late last year). I’ve received no replies to those emails.
It may be that they’ve been on Christmas and New Year holidays. It may be that they’re en route to Detroit for the show. Either of these are quite likely and a far better explanation than the one I’m about to propose.
But what if they’re keeping quiet because there’s an announcement imminent about Saab’s future. And what if the NAIAS is the venue for that announcement?
As I said, it’s far more likely that they’re just too busy in the lead up to the show and it’s probably too soon for a deal to have been done, but it’s a big stage that’s suitable for a big announcement.
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Speaking of the NAIAS, the Cadillac SRX press releases came out a few days ago. Autoblog have recently run another SRX story, including this line:
We had the chance to speak with Cadillac Marketing Director Steve Shannon to get an in-depth tour of the new SRX
I guess all those assurances that Steve Shannon was still working hard on Saab marketing now that The Cat In The Hat has come on board were only about 1/3 true (assuming he’s splitting his time evenly between the three premium brands).
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2. Porsche accidentally acquires Scania
The other story that piqued my interest this afternoon is the story that Porsche have upped their ownership stake in Volkswagen to more than 50%.
From Automotive News:
Germany’s Porsche Automobil Holding has raised its stake in Volkswagen to more than 50 percent, triggering a mandatory takeover offer for Sweden’s Scania as a result…..
……As a result of its stake hike on Monday, Porsche now has indirect control of Swedish truck maker Scania, in which Volkswagen holds about 69 percent of the voting rights.
Porsche is required by Swedish law to make a mandatory takeover offer, but the German sports car maker said it had no strategic interest in Scania and was not interested in acquiring Scania shares.
It said it was not bound by pre-acquisition prices and was only obliged to offer the minimum price prescribed by law.
I don’t think it’ll work this way, but what if Scania became available for sale and someone chose to bring the two Swedish companies, Scania and Saab, back together again.
It’s very unlikely – very – but an interesting development nonetheless.
VW want to consolidate Scania and MAN with their own operations. Porsche will end up controlling VW, but they don’t want the truck division. The outcome will be interesting to watch.
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14 responses so far ↓
1 Markac
// Jan 6, 2009 at 6:44 pm
It would be ironic if Saab and Scania were combined again. From what I’ve read however, it wasn’t actually a happy marriage last time. I have a gut feeling that whoever buys Saab might be something of a surprise. Unlike Saabhistory, I wouldn’t rule out anyone at this stage.
2 ctm
// Jan 6, 2009 at 8:10 pm
Markac is right, the marriage wasn’t happy in the end. I think the combined company would still be too small to add anything to the partners. I’m still intrigued to exactly why Porsche want to control VW. I don’t buy that crap about them having to own some “low-emission” brands because of future laws. I still think it’s just a family feud that could end in any way. My dream continues to be a situation where they cut of the luxury brands from VW (Audi, Bentley, Lamborghini, Bugatti) and sell them to Asia. The rest is sold back to the some German investors, and then they pick up GME from GM. But my reality guess is some boring situation where an investment firm picks up 50% of Saab, and then we are back to square one with a split ownership that doesn’t work.
Maybe Bernard’s comment about the Pike’s Pike Saab not up for auction at barret-jackson.com the moment shows that a deal is imminent and the new buyer wants everything to justify the price tag…
3 Markac
// Jan 6, 2009 at 8:36 pm
ctm: I read somewhere that Porsche bought VW to protect itself. It seems if someone else had bought VW it would’ve made Porsche vulnerable.
As to Saab going back to 50% GM ownership, at least it seemed to have more potential then the stagnant strangled thing it became under full GM ownership. I think by 2003 the writing was beginning to appear on the wall how things would shape up, and the last five years has just been a downward spiral. I remember reading back in about 1997 that Investor AB had some misgivings about selling the rest of Saab to GM (in 2000). GM must have had some misgivings too because they didn’t complete their purchase until almost the last moment.
4 Nico
// Jan 6, 2009 at 9:55 pm
I had posted this previously, just a recap….
I was just wondering if anybody has mentioned “Fuji Heavy Industries” (the owners of Subaru). Wouldn’t that be a great fit. All those Asian companies have a low end and high end, based on the same model. Subaru and Saab could do the same. (I know it reeks of treason)
I am not impressed with the 9-7X or the 9-2X, yet Saab needed those models, and Saab still does need to be active in those segments. And the proposed 9-6X did look rather okay. How is Subaru doing during this economic down turns? I still see a lot of new Subarus, and the old ones seem to hold on as well. Actually, in the news today, Subaru increased its US sales by 0.3%, the only major car player to gain sales. Now that could be a great partner. Besides, the Asian carmakers at least produce what they build as concept. That is appealing to me.
The only downside of Subaru is that they almost go after the same demographic as Saab, yet in a different spending class. And they have the same footprint in New England. Now what is Subarus footprint in Europe? Are they big over there? Otherwise this could mean a grand entry, right, which would make a merger with Saab even more desirable.
They tried with the 9-2X, going forward, Subaru would love the 9-x BH/Air, the 9-4X and all its potential, Plus the XWD and Air roof mechanism. Plus maybe the Aero-X could finally get build.
And because Fuji is diversified (Aircraft heritage) they might be the ones that have the cash, and the ties with GM to make a smooth transition possible.
Anyway just a thought,
Nico
5 Dippen
// Jan 6, 2009 at 10:11 pm
hm could be that they will announce something at NAIAS other than the 9-5 Griffin ( i am just hoping..)
btw production at SAAB will start again tomorrow after some period of down time in production.
6 ctm
// Jan 6, 2009 at 11:28 pm
Dippen,
Maybe yet another concept?
Nico,
Looking at Sweden, Subaru sale were up 10% in 08. Still a small player though with about 1.2% market share. I can’t find any numbers for the whole of Europe. In the official statistics, there is a category called “Other” under Japanese brands and I guess it include mainly Lexus, Infiniti, and Subaru. That category only accounted for about 0.7% market share in 08, so I would guess that Subaru is even smaller than Saab (0.4%) in Europe.
Markac,
Yeah, I have seen that myself. But I can’t figure out why because who would buy VW? Even a 100% German company like Porsche ran into trouble with the German protectionism regarding VW. What non-German company would stand a chance? Also, Porsche is only one brand while almost all other big players consists of several brands. What car company would want to add another 7 brands to their own mess?
7 Kurt W. Krauss
// Jan 7, 2009 at 12:23 am
I am a die-hard Saab fan, but the Subaru Outback wagon is hard to ignore: AWD, very safe (5 Star Crash ratings) and $22,500 for a nicely equipped 5 speed all wheel drive car with a strong mechanical reputation. The front seats could be better and don’t compare to my 9-5 Combi 60th Anniversary seats and the car does not have the kick of the turbo, but then again, it is half the price. That said, I could envision a far worse steward of the Saab brand than Subaru.
8 Rune (the other one)
// Jan 7, 2009 at 1:28 am
My pet peeve: 5 star crash ratings seem to be achievable by all vehicles. They have set the bar very low.
9 max
// Jan 7, 2009 at 3:13 am
GM is counting on the Swedish Gov’t to buy part of Saab. As far as the delay in communications in the US GM has been closed for around 10 days. We had a sold 9-7X enroute and was delayed and we had no one to call. Steve Shannon was too busy removing 9-4X grilles putting on Caddy badges. Who is Mark McMissing?
10 Dippen
// Jan 7, 2009 at 5:54 am
ctm : or maybe its a NG 9-5? ok now you can kill me
11 ctm
// Jan 7, 2009 at 7:21 am
Dippen,
Naw… With Saab, everything is always 12-18 months away…
12 ctm
// Jan 7, 2009 at 7:27 am
BTW, do we actually know anything about Saab’s presence at NAIAS? They gonna be there, right? Lots of brands have pulled out of it.
13 Swade
// Jan 7, 2009 at 7:50 am
They’ll be there, ctm. The only ‘new’ vehicle will be the 9-5 Griffin Edition that they did the press release on late in 2008. The 9-X Air might be there as well, I guess, as it was in LA recently.
14 Bill Bartmann
// Sep 4, 2009 at 2:48 am
Excellent site, keep up the good work