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It’s been a very enjoyable week here or so here at Trollhattan Saab.

There were no new Saab vehicles planned for the Detroit Auto Show so I didn’t get an invitation this year (not sure they’d have me back, anyway), but the announcements that came out of the show were, in a way, bigger than any of the vehicle showings at any recent auto show for Saab.

What we got from Detroit, in essence, was the hope of at least a semi-independent near-term future for Saab. The Swedish government representatives present at the show effectively said that they couldn’t envision a near-term future where Saab didn’t exist, and that a condition of their support would be that the money they pledge has to stay in Sweden. And that means Saab have to stay in Sweden.

The idea of a Saab designed, engineered and built in Sweden is pretty much every Saab nut’s dream. We’ve been watching Saab’s design ethos get watered down more and more over recent years. They still make excellent vehicles, but there’s a certain independent presence missing, agreed?

The relationship that’s been posed in the news reports is one where Saab and GM bill one another for services and parts rendered, an arrangement that’s not without its pitfalls. It does give Saab the chance to receive funds for their high-end services, but it also has the potential to tie up Saab engineers on GM work in a quest for investment funds and thereby divert man-hours from Saab engineering.

For example, will Saab have the ability to prioritise their own work and decline a GM request for some new development if that work won’t have an adequate return for Saab? A careful balance is going to have to be maintained.

The other downside is that Saab are still tied to GM and there’s a danger that a negative fate for GM in the near future might draw Saab in with it.

But let’s stay positive here.

Saab need to rebuild their business and they’ve got the one thing that anyone in their position would want – a legitimate shot at doing it their own way.

Saab have said they need to sell around 175,000 vehicles annually in order to be a profitable business. I’m not sure how this new arrangement factors into that number, but let’s assume that the number remains stable.

Saab have to kick goals. The 9-5 and 9-4x are in the bag already and we can assume from recent reports that they’ll both go ahead with production in Trollhattan and Mexico, respectively. The first step to getting out of a hard place in the car industry is to produce great products and we’re all pinning our hopes on these new “ground-up” Saab designs to be just that.

Will they be enough to lift Saab above that magic threshold? Maybe. Saab sold 94,000 vehicles worldwide in 2008 and around 85% of that volume was probably made up of a single model line – the Saab 9-3. A new 9-5 and 9-4x will take away a few of those 9-3 sales, but they’ll also add much needed opportunities for conquest sales in 2010.

Those models won’t be the measuring stick for Saab’s success, though. Not in my eyes. They’ll be contributors, for sure, but there’s other things linked in with them that will need to be done to secure a future for Saab.

I have a feeling that there will be two measures by which the success of Saab’s independence will be judged. The first will be a solidified brand image and the second will be a new Saab 9-3 range.

The Saab Brand

There’s little doubt in my mind that Saab’s brand image, small as it is, has been damaged by GM ownership. Whether it’s the loss of design independence, the cancellation of progressive Saab model lines in the last 7 years, the dumbing down of Saab interiors as well as the dumbing down of Saab marketing in some markets – Saab don’t have the presence they used to have. It was never a large presence, but it was always a unique presence.

That’s the Saab side of this.

The other side of this a little bit of damnation by association. GM are in a funk, and Saab are right there in a funk with them simply becuase GM have tied Saab so tightly to the mothership. I think GM are going to remain in a funk for some time, too, at least in the mind of the people that matter (consumers). As long as they’re on the public teet, they’re going to be tarnished and the quicker Saab can position themselves as a brand independent from GM, the better.

GM don’t understand ’small’. They don’t understand ‘niche’. I have a feeling that they’ve only really begun to understand that they don’t understand these things in the last six months or so. Is Donald Rumsfeld on the board at GM?

Saab are small. They’re niche. And they’re valuable in what they bring to GM’s table if they’re allowed to create. XWD is the perfect example of this.

Inside stories that I’ve read and heard about XWD indicate that there was no small amount of reluctance on Opel’s part to allow the development of the technology to proceed. Saab and Haldex had taken it too far to let it rest, however, so proceed it did. And now it’s making it into mainstream and high-end GM vehicles.

Saab won’t see much in the way of benefits for this, but maybe they will with similar developments in the future.

Saab need to use this opportunity to push themselves as an independent niche player and as a very European carmaker. Saab’s Swedish roots and innovative technical background set them apart from many others, and they need to play this card to its full measure.

What’s more, they need to do this in a uniform manner in all markets. The development of one message is cheaper than the development of a bunch of different messages. The development of one website architecture is cheaper than the development of different architectures for different markets. Consistency in delivering the right message is going to be key.

The next Saab 9-3

The new Saab 9-5 and the all-new Saab 9-4x are coming but as good as they’ll hopefully be, they’ll still be ‘GM’ vehicles. That won’t be any sort of taint on them in Saab circles, but I have a feeling that Saab’s success in the future is going to be defined by what Saab develop as the replacement for the Saab 9-3.

The Saab 9-3 is, and probably always will be, their high-volume model range. The current 9-3 dates back to 2003 and whilst that’s not old in Saab terms, it’s getting long in the tooth by modern automotive standards.

I have a feeling that Saab’s plans for the next generation of the 9-3 will be signed off as soon as these new financial and structural arrangements are finalised. We’ve already had a glimpse of their new convertible technology with the Saab 9-X Air, but the mainstream model is the one that people will really want to see, and it’s the car that will be designed by a more independent-minded Saab from the ground up.

There can’t be a more important model than the next Saab 9-3 for Saab’s future and I think it’s going to get a very high priority.

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Having come from a very dark place in the last couple of years, I think the immediate future is looking very bright indeed for Saab.

At the very least, they’ve got the chance to develop and deliver their own technology, models and message.

The advent of this new opportunity (should it actually come to pass) is a reason to pause and celebrate, but then the hard work really begins. The stakes will be high as the prize is not necessarily prosperity, it’s mere survival.

I’ve got a lot of confidence in Saab pulling it off, though. Properly resourced and supported, these Swedes are capable of some amazing things.

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