42 responses so far ↓

• 1 van god los // Nov 25, 2008 at 8:58 pm

  Sorry swade, but I tend to agree with the dude when it comes to the modelline of Saab for the (near) future.

  The 9-3x should have been out 3 to 4 years ago.

  I think/hope that the 9-3x still might be some what succesfull as gas prices are likely to stay relatively high in the near future. But what I don’t understand is that the 9-3x probably won’t come with a diesel engine. This means that saab does not want to serve around 50% of the European market with this car (and the european market is still the most important market for Saab) …

  And the soon to come (?) 9-4x is already so much a “yesterday” car. Instead of what people seem to think, the 9-4x is not a compact suv, it’s the same size as the 1st generation MB ML !

  That car should have been on the market 5 to 6 years ago !

  The only other thing left in the pipeline, is the 9-5. A big saloon. If it’s more or less the same size as the opel insignia, it could be a winner but if it’s bigger (size audi A6), the 9-5 will be a niche product … in a niche market.

  Being a niche product is ok, but a niche product in a niche market, won’t make a big difference for saab. No matter how good the next 9-5 might be.

  Ovlov on the other hand had a big suv when big suv’s where popular, they now have a small(er) suv now that small suv’s are popular. They have a XC70 since years. They have a practicle compact car (v50). They have every model a brand needs … but they will never be saabs.

  Honestly, I do not (always) share the optimism that some people here have when it comes to the future modelline of Saab.

  They should have the 9-5 on the market in 2009. Followed by the 9-5 estate a half year later and by the 9-5x a year later (the platform of the insignia is designed for 4wheel drive).

  For people who want to switch from a suv, a 9-5x would be ideal. They’re used to having a lot of room. The 9-3x is way to small for somehow who drove a suv before. A 9-5x would be a better alternative for former suv-drivers.

  By 2011 they should have the 9-3 (hatchback/saloon) ready, a half year later followed by the estate (or the hatchback if they prefer to come with the saloon first), and a year later followed by the 9-3 Air.

  No, I honestly think that both the 9-4x and the 9-3x should have been cancelled in favour of a bigger (and sooner) 9-5 modelline (saloon, estate and crossover). In my opinion saab is coming with the wrong models.

  Just my 2 cents …

• 2 van god los // Nov 25, 2008 at 9:18 pm

  On the other hand, the fact that Saab only needs 150.000 to 200.000 sales a year to do break even, is a huge advantage in the very competitive automotive world.

  This means that even with not such a brilliant modelline, they could still make their break even point.

  ***Fingers crossed and hoping I’m wrong***

• 3 swade // Nov 25, 2008 at 9:26 pm

  VGL, I have to disagree.

  Yes, some of the car should have come earlier. Without doubt. But that doesn’t mean they’re not going to find a market in the next few years.

  A decent midsize SUV is still going to be a good offering in the US. There was an article on one of the automotive sites earlier today stating that now gas prices have gone down again in the US, SUV’s are once again selling strong.

  It won’t be like that forever, but the US will always have a market for a good SUV. Making it in Mexico is going to make it a very cost-effective vehicle for Saab.

  I agree with the diesel argument for the 9-3x. The sooner they figure this out the better as Europe will eat it up if they can get that together.

  But again, the fact that they’ve been in a model mess for the last few years doesn’t mean that there isn’t a good plan for the future in place.

  The 9-4x and 9-5 will both find markets and a downsized 9-3 (bring it sooner rather than later) will be very effective, too.

  I know I can tend to see things with rose colored glasses when it comes to Saab, but this guy saying there’s no hope for them when the model plans are in the pipe is just not accurate.

• 4 van god los // Nov 25, 2008 at 9:38 pm

  You’re probably right on the USA thing. I’m European and tend to see things through European glasses. So with regard to the 9-4x, I’ll give GM some credit.

  But the 9-3x is a mistake : too small for former (american) SUV owners and no diesel for Europe. They should have spent that money on the 9-5(x).

• 5 a-ro 95 // Nov 25, 2008 at 9:42 pm

  Hello Swade,

  Professor Dudenhöffer is very well respected in Automotive circles and is the expert here in Germany. In fact the Prof. worked for Opel in the ’80s before moving to Porsche as the head of Marketing. He has worked as a consultant and Professor since the early ’90s.

  I think if we are honest with ourselves, Saab is in a mess and this is often lamented on these pages. Like everything else from Saab XWD is too late and the advantage it had as being the most modern and efficient AWD system has not been properly marketed, in the meantime other manufacturers, especially the AWD primus Audi, are introducing similarly advanced systems. As van god los states the 9-4x is the wrong vehicle for the time. Everybody is pinning a lot of hopes on the 9-5 but this again is too little too late and realistically there is nothing really to look forward to on the horizon.

  Opel has dived here in Germany, the Insignia initially appears to be a good vehicle but if it can really regain market share against the Mondeo, Passat, Avensis et al still needs to be seen. The Astra is outdated and outclassed by the Focus and we will have to wait and see if the replacement now arrives on schedule, the Corsa is also outclassed by the new Fiesta and other vehicles in its class.

  Volvo also now have a comprehensive range of good vehicles, the XC60 is getting rave reviews here.

  Opel initially approached the German goverment for 1 thousand million Euros (over inflated billions if you are in the US!) in guarantees because GM was unable to repay 2 thousand million it had “borrowed”. They have now however admitted that they need more than 1 TM. In fact last week a leading Solar Energy company offered to buy Opel and make it the first truely environmentally friendly mass production car maker!

• 6 swade // Nov 25, 2008 at 10:08 pm

  A-Ro,

  Come on. The Solar offer never had a chance at succeeding in a million years. Offer 1 billion and then demand 1 billion in compensation for workers? All they were doing was getting their names in the news, and it backfired, too, as their share price dived.

  I’m sure the Dude has some serious credentials (a lot of stuff in Germany is serious), but I’m also sure you’re seeing some of this through Euro-only eyes.

  All I’m saying is that there is a plan in place. Given a chance, it’ll unfold in the next 18 months we’ll get a real chance to see if Saab can make an impression. They already make a good contribution to GME’s engineering efforts. Now it’s time for some credibility for the badge in it’s own right.

• 7 bastiano // Nov 26, 2008 at 12:15 am

  Hi Swade, how are you?
  I must say that I think your point of view is completely biased due to your need (it’s mine also) to see Saab succeed.

  I read the article from Dagens Indutri last week and didn’t like what Dudenhoeffer said, but he’s right. Saab is a mess, it’s always been a mess since its foundation; and believe me, I love to read about Saab history, so I think I know a big deal about it.
  GM’s latest efforts to rescue the brand are too little, too late. They continue to put the griffin’s badge in overpriced Opels, that’s not what a real Saab-freak wants!
  They are talking about “right-sizing” today; they should’ve done that way back in 1989!
  Saab desperately needs a small car, something to offer as an alternative to A3, Golf, BMW 1-series! We had that product, the 9-x and GM leadership killed it just because Saab didn’t make any profit during the first 10 years of GM’s ownership. They should have shot themselves in the b*lls instead of cutting founding to the Swedes!
  Where do you see the order in that?
  And they continue to push back 9-5, next generation 9-3, 9-1 and so on.
  Point to Dudenhoeffer.

  Making Cadillacs at Saab was not a stupid decision, probably. Bringing Cadillac to Europe was.
  There’s nothing to argue about that.

  “I’ve not seen a successful management decision at GM Europe in 5 years…”
  We haven’t seen the results of developing the Insignia yet, so it doesn’t matter how many prizes it gets. Lots of Saabs had won prizes and they’ve never been big sellers. Where’s the good decision if it doesn’t sell well?
  Chevrolet being a huge hit? I’m confused, Chevy or Opel?
  Sorry Swade, but I have to give another point to the Professor.

  Ford has a very good European lineup; it’s so good that they’re “exporting” it to The States.
  Whichever bad management judgement they’ve incurred in with Volvo doesn’t kill the fact that Ford have been doing money in Europe.

  As for Volvo; it’s not fat! What’s your basis to say that? It’s bigger than Saab, which is great! Bigger is better in carmakers industry (up to some extent, of course).
  Saab was a consolation prize to GM after they failed to secure Volvo. Don’t you remember that?
  Ok, Volvo has some manufacturing issues and it’s not as efficient as Saab; but it’s easier to fix than Saab’s problems.

  And yes, Saab only need to sell between 150-200 thousands cars to reach the breakeven point (not to be profitable). But that means that each car has to contribute with a bigger portion to cover operating costs of the whole company.
  Have we all gone mad? How could you say that being small is better in the car industry? C’mon Swade! You know car industry, you can do it better!

  I won’t keep counting more points in Dudenhoeffer’s favour.

  Saab doesn’t have a chance if it continues to be a part of GM! And I assure you that it will be the end of our beloved company if its bought by the Chinese or Indians, Russians or anybody except of Swedes.
  Yesterday I read an interesting article at Dagens Industri written by Rolf Wolff, head of the School of Economics of Gothenbourg (Handelshögskolan i Göteborg). He says it will be better for Sweden (and for Volvo) to buy Volvo and make it a State owned company. And I agree with him 100%, it’s the only way to save the company.
  As for Saab, he says “Saab Automobile upphör att existera“, which means “Saab Automobile ceases to exist”. If you are interested in the article please contact me and I’ll translate if for you.

  I didn’t mean to attack you, I’m just judging your passionate defense of Saab.

  Kram!

• 8 ctm // Nov 26, 2008 at 12:32 am

  I think I wrote about this guy in a comment last week or so. Agree, putting Professor in front of that name makes it cartoonish… I understand that German so called experts are annoyed by Saab and the fact that GM thinks that it’s premium and Opel is not. I understand that they think Saab should be put to sleep or sold of for its own good. But just a small reminder of what have happened the last 20 years to some European brands…

  Aston Martin – Bought by Ford. Sold to private investors.
  Jaguar – Bought by Ford. Sold to Tata.
  Land Rover – Bought by BMW. Sold to Ford and then sold to Tata.
  MG – Bought by BMW. Sold to Phoenix who then went bankrupt.
  Rover – Bought by BMW. Sold to Phoenix who then went bankrupt.

  Bentley – Bought by VW.
  Mini – Bought by BMW.
  Rolls-Royce – Bought by BMW.
  Saab – Bought by GM.
  Volvo – Bought by Ford.

  Despite almost 20 years of losses, lack of models, and small production, it seems like Saab is a very valuable brand…

• 9 saabista63 // Nov 26, 2008 at 1:00 am

  Swade,

  I do think Saab is still a valuable brand and that there is some possibility for the future, especially if I see the 9-X Air, which IMHO is a perfectly right-sized, intelligent product for the times to come.
  I do not fully agree with Prof. Dudenhöffer, who is a well-known expert and an interesting voice always worth listening to, but also tends to be very polarizing in some way.
  What I have to say though is that many decisions at Saab should have been taken at least three years before they really were taken, and that the new 9-5 should probably be renamed 9-9 and sold as an executive sedan, as I tend to think it is one size too big to be middle-class in the sense of the approaching decade.

  Still, I’m really curious about this one and hope it’ll at least be as good as the old 9-5 was, when it was presented.

  What Saab really needs most, however, is a bunch of executives who are not only business-wise, but also have a true passion for the brand and – even more important – a thorough understanding of the customers that have been loyal to Saab during so many years of marketing mistakes and lack of customer orientation. I tend to think that Jan Ake Jonsson and many of the guys in Sweden are in that class, but in many countries’ GM-organisation, the Saab division is just a step up that ladder, and one you wouldn’t like to stand on for too long.

  Thank you

  saabista63

• 10 The Fop // Nov 26, 2008 at 1:15 am

  Would respectfully suggest that The Prof looks at GME market by market rather than focusing on Germany. In the UK, Vauxhall (UK name for Opel) has been growing market share steadily, and are now beating Ford pretty regularly (for the first time I can remember, and I’m older than I’d like to admit…). Suggest he looks at what the UK team have been doing if he wants to see some good GME decision making. No reason they can’t do the same in Germany and elsewhere if they just learn from their own internal best practice.

• 11 bornfromjets03 // Nov 26, 2008 at 1:32 am

  Swade and others,

  While I have to agree with a few of you that GM Europe hasn’t really given Saab a fighting chance, and Saabs here in the states are bland at best to the general public, I have to ultimately agree with Swade on this one.

  While Saab HAS waited this long to bring out XWD, from what I’ve heard it’s pretty good, and the Turbo X sure is a looker!

  I know a 9-4x and/or a 9-3x would be a good move for Saab here in the US, cuz no matter how you slice it, we Americans like knowing we have space to haul, while still having a sporty(ish) vehicle (even if we never actually make full use of any of these qualities).

  Also, I believe GMs idea to downsize the 9-3 is a darn good one. The current 9-3 and 9-5 are basically the same to the average buyer(but the 9-3 looks nicer and is cheaper). So differenciating the two models will only help sales.

  Since GM has realized that brand engineering really doesn’t work out that well for Saab (in the case of the 9-7x) I’m hoping that while the 9-4x isn’t COMPLETELY new, it does incorporate more individualistic elements than the Saab trailblazer or the Saab STI(9-2x).

  Saab has serious potential. Anyone who doesn’t agree has never pushed their foot into a Saab turbo!

  bornfromjets03

• 12 Tim in Denver // Nov 26, 2008 at 1:38 am

  are you kidding me?
  Is Saab/GM a mess or is Ford?
  That’s like saying (in March of this year): Is Lehman Bros. or AIG a worse-run corporation?

  They’re BOTH almost bankrupt.
  They’re BOTH a mess.

  I sit on the board of a $25 million enterprise.
  Their boards have to be scared s***less!
  It’s going down on their watch and they’re scrambling fast!

• 13 Mats // Nov 26, 2008 at 3:30 am

  Actually Swade has a point in that Volvo’s been fat, they’ve had way too much people doing the same thing and to many not working with real R&D but with supportive administration that could be bought from others at a lower cost. This is why they’re now cutting several thousands of jobs….

  As long as they were making a huge profit (that went to cover Ford US losses) this was never a problem, but now because of less sales due to the general economic downturn and with alot of quality problems with the early S40/V50 and half-flopped C30 they cannot fill their big suit anymore….

• 14 Johnny // Nov 26, 2008 at 3:58 am

  To Swedish newspaper Svenska Dagbladet, Professor Dudenhoeffer said that “today, Saab is not much more than an Opel with a glued-on Saab badge”.

  I would really like to know exactly what he was referring to. Current 9-3 and Vectra? 9-5, Vectra? Does he really think that these cars are identical? Or has he access to some inside information about the future line up? It worries me that a supposedly renowned car industry expert does not distinguish badge engineering from platform sharing. My best guess is that he has no real clue about the current Saab products, but is just joining the usual doomsday rant.

  If he honestly thinks the similarities between 9-3/9-5 and Opel are that big, he must have real problems with the whole VW/Audi/Seat/Skoda mix.

  His other reflections on the state of GM may be knowledgeable and worth considering, I don’t know. Let’s just hope there will be a few brands left out there to analyse, so he can keep his job!

• 15 eggsngrits // Nov 26, 2008 at 4:03 am

  I think that the Dude needs to quit putting starch in his shorts.

• 16 Mats // Nov 26, 2008 at 4:18 am

  Well he’s sortof like Jeremy Clarkson on TopGear, “If it aint british, it’s crap” and the germans are the same, “If iiits nicht german it iiiis keine gut!” while we swedes know that if it aint Swedish, it’s not as good as it could be…

  

• 17 Bernard // Nov 26, 2008 at 4:48 am

  I like the second half of the Detroit News article where he says that the industry needs “longer life cycles and a higher level of technology.” That’s exactly what Saab’s been doing all along.

  Of course, that can be contrasted with the assessment that Opel’s cars are uncompetitive just because Ford’s come out with a new Focus. Didn’t the Astra outsell the Focus and Golf last year in most European markets?

  The elephant in the room is the Eastern European market.
  When you think about it, it really doesn’t matter how VW, Opel, BMW, Fiat, Peugeot and Renault split the Western European market. It’s only going to shift a few percentage points either way, and volume is not likely to increase.

• 18 A-RO 95 // Nov 26, 2008 at 5:11 am

  @ The Fop
  O.K. lets look at some figures in Europe:
  Germany
  Ford sold 19 413 vehicles in October 2008 compared to 18 340 vehicles October 2007 increasing their market share from 6.9% to 7.5%.
  Opel on the otherhand sold 18 515 vehicles in October 2008 compared to 22 210 in October 2007 losing market share going from 7.9% to 7.2%

  U.K.
  Here Ford also increased their market share from 13.5% to 16.6%. Vauxhall however only went from 15.0% to 15.1% and were so overtaken by Ford!

  Western Europe
  Ford
  2008 8.7%
  2007 8.6%

  Opel
  2008 7.7%
  2007 8.1%

  If you go back to 2001 Opel/Vauxhall had 9.4% of the Western European Market compared to Ford’s 8.8%

  I am afraid that while Ford have overall maintained their position in Europe Opel/Vauxhall have been slipping.

  @ Tim in Denver
  If you forget the US then here in Europe both Ford and Opel/Vauxhall are actually profitable and also in Australia I believe that, although they have also lost market share, they are also profitable, currently it is in the US that the real mess lies.

  On the financial side Opel/Vauxhall’s situation in Europe is currently substantially worse than Ford. In Australia I am not sure but again I believe the decisions made in Detroit have had a greater adverse effect on Holden than on Ford there.
  The fact that a large number of future European GM products are now being developed in Korea I believe does not bode well for them here in Europe, (that is if these projects ever reach production!).

• 19 Alex // Nov 26, 2008 at 6:17 am

  Volvo may be in trouble right now in the short term, but much of that has to do with the same falling consumer demand that’s hitting everyone in the automotive industry right now. Unlike Saab, they have the factories, they have the models, they have the investment and while they may need to lay off workers in the short term, they are in a much better position to jump back into profitability once demand resumes. All they need to do is turn the factories on again. It’s really a moot point though since Ford has the cash reserves to last at least another 18 months at this race, so their financial situation isn’t nearly as pressing as GM’s (meaning they’re much less in need of the cash infusion that a Volvo sale would bring them than GM is)

  Saab on the other hand has two aging models that were barely competitive even when demand was high less than a year ago. Even when demand was high, Saab as a brand considered it a milestone to break more than 160k sales a year worldwide, Volvo on the other hand likely broke that number in US sales alone. So Saab is deep in the poo and has been for a while, but how does the future look? It looks equally crappy. Just as the economy is cooling off, Saab’s next two upcoming models are a large premium sedan (good for 30-40k sales worldwide if Saab hits it out of the park) and an X5-sized SUV that might crack 20k sales a year in the US if it’s a stellar hit while likely selling by the hundreds everywhere else. It’ll be an improvement, for sure, but what Saab really and truly needs is a new “meat and potatoes” model. The new 9-3 can’t come soon enough, and unfortunately for Saab 2012 is just too far away for the 9-3SS to last without a major powertrain and interior refresh.

  And that’s assuming that Saab still has any consumer appeal left to attract some much-needed new blood to the brand, completely ignoring the damage that GM has done to Saab’s brand image over the years. Either way, the next-generation Saab products need to be totally stellar in a way that has even BMW owners looking.

• 20 ctm // Nov 26, 2008 at 6:22 am

  Opel has had some problems recent years, but it loks better now. But there is no way Opel could make it as a standalone brand. They need Saab and in some areas other GM brands to share development costs with. Also, Daewoo’s aka Chevrolet probably is avery healthy business that keeps Saab/Opel afloat. I guess Chevrolet has cannibalized some on Opel sales, but large they have been very well positioned in the new markets in Eastern Europe. I think I read somewhere that Chevrolet Lazetti is now the best selling car in Russia, and Russia is also now the biggest car market in Europe.

  Top 3 of Europe’s best selling brands 2007:
  1 – VW group
  2 – GM
  3 – Ford group

  Top 10 of Europe’s best selling cars 2007:
  1 – Peugeot 207
  2 – VW Golf
  3 – Ford Focus
  4 – Opel/Vauxhall Corsa
  5 – Opel/Vauxhall Astra

  Looks like Opel is OK in Europe at the moment.

• 21 Joe Lobo // Nov 26, 2008 at 6:36 am

  Surely, coming from a German well respected authority what else could this Dude broadcast other than much of the same: bucket loads of endless negative press rather than the positives. And as Matts states, if it’s not the beloved German darling brands its no good. I spent about 2 years in Germany whilst at school and know the culture quite well and how nationalistic this nation is. Ich spreche auch Deutsch !!! I recall that the Germans have always seen Opel as the poor cousin of their cars, always a cheap and inferior option. No wonder der Dude also buckets on to them and gives no credit whatsoever. Any German (outside of our own mob coming to this site) will invariably see in Saab what the Swedes could not do to make it like another German car. Der Dude should go back to their beloved A, B and Ms and wait a bit as soon all of them will come out and declare what’s happening under their roofs as no one will be spared in this economic times.

• 22 Johan // Nov 26, 2008 at 8:33 am

  While the media spin have always been that Saabs are essentially Opels with a Saab badges, I’m surprised to see such a statement from someone like Dudenhoeffer, surely he must know better? With current models, the problem have rather been that the models share too few components with their Opel siblings. Yes, they use the same platforms, engines and such but they are reworked alot. This means that a Saab 9-3 for instance can’t be made in other factories than the Trollhättan plant, and it have also make it difficult for other GM brands to make full use of the components Saab has developed for their own use. With future models this will change, the new 9-5 for instance can be made in any plant that can handle Epsilon 2 based cars. This would also open up for production of the new 9-5 in the US, if that is profitable. With the current weak dollar and pound as well as the strong euro it has been difficult to export cars made in the euro zone such as Germany to USA or UK with a profit. Yes, some GME production is in the UK, but more cars are imported to the UK from the euro zone than exported.

  Cadillac BLS wasn’t a genius move. Even though its introduction also meant improved parts could be carried over to the 9-3, it would probably been better to spend the money direct on the 9-3 in order to increase its sales.

  While SUV sales are declining, it’s mainly full size SUV’s that are declining while crossovers takes a larger and larger share of the SUV segment. As of 2007, XC90 was still the best selling car for Volvo with almost 80,000 sales compared to the 46,000 for C30. Could Saab sell the 9-4x in half the numbers that Volvo sells the XC90 it would be a huge step towards the needed 150-200k cars per year. If also the 9-3x could increase the sales of the 9-3 somewhat, and the introduction of the new 9-5 would bring back sales to earlier levels they should be able to pass at least 150k car a year.

  Saab was by the way on the ‘rightsizing’ bandwagon already in the early nineties, the problem was that nobody cared, and everyone just wanted big naturally aspiranted engines. So if something, Saab was too early (which can be just as bad as being too late).

  As for no diesel option for the 9-3x, what I’ve heard the trouble is that the XWD system doesn’t fit with the diesel engine.

  Also, note that the GM-Daewoo cars sold in europe are not considered GM Europe sales, but are classed as GM Pacific I think. So they are not a part of GME profits.

• 23 WooDz // Nov 26, 2008 at 9:40 am

  The Dude is wrong and my views and facts are based on 8 years Saab sales experience.

  I do not possess a degree and naturally did not follow a path of higher education, which is why sometimes I shake my head when people write such utterly hideous ‘clap-trap’ like Mr Dudilingus.

  I’d like to comment on a few things and the best way to do that is in order of when they appeared in “Don’t call me, Dude” post.

  There is no denying that the 9-3x should have be launched a few years ago but I posted here once that in 2005 GM’s share value had dropped nearly 50% (the lowest they had been in something like 15 years) and GM had no other option but to cancel some projects, sell assets, close plants and shed workers. The 9-3x was one of those projects. It was based on a very expensive architecture and no other vehicle in the GM lineup could use the AWD system that was part of the 9x and 9-3x concepts.

  The 9-3x is not intended to take established SUV customers. It’s to stop normal sedan customers buying VW Tiguans and AUDI Q5’s
  As far as the upcoming 9-3x requiring diesel could well be thought for a future discussion point. Diesel is in essence a ‘dirty’ fuel. In order for the 9-3 to meet Euro IV emissions the exhaust gasses need to pass through a particulate filter (PF), which not only adds an extra €1000 to the cost of the vehicle but also requires the engine to be at an optimum operating temperature to function properly. If you own a 9-3 1.9TID the chances are you’ve probably had to take you car to the Saab dealer for a manual PF regeneration, because it became clogged and the ‘check engine’ light came on. On average it takes approximately 16mls of normal driving for the 1.9TID engine to reach it’s correct operating temperature from cold. If your commute to work is less than that, there is a good chance the PF is going to get clogged, unless once or twice a week you’ve made a longer journey which consisted of a motor-way, etc. Saab isn’t alone with PF problems and all manufacturers suffer from it including premium brands like Audi.
  Then we have the oil prices having an effect on the viability of the diesel engine. The cost of diesel vs gasoline is based on cost of fuel and yearly mileage. Although we have been given a bit a break in hiked fuel prices recently one thing we can count on, is they will rise again and will continue to rise until resources are depleted. The modern gasoline engine is only disadvantaged by about 3 ltr/100km than current diesels, which means with the two fuel prices currently being almost identical and in some cases diesel costing more; you’ll have to be doing a serious amount of miles in your car to compensate for the extra initial outlay for a diesel and the minimal amount of extra economy you will achieve. With the introduction of new HCCI engines the economy advantage will decrease more. This is before manufactures will be able to add a hybrid for the same price as a diesel variant which will not only be more fuel efficient but will have lower CO2 emissions and will not require extra filtering in order to be ‘clean’. Saab also has Bio-Power up there sleeves, so should Saab be using vital funds to drive a business case for a diesel or a Bio-Hybrid 9-3x?

  As a 5 seater only the 9-4x will be more CUV than SUV and as the architecture will be coupled with the NG Cadillac SRX, I will not be surprised to see a Direct-Injected Hybrid version appearing in the lineup at some point. GM do see that the timing is not great for the 9-4x, which does explain why it has been delayed in favor of giving the 9-5 the priority.
  Just to make things clear the 9-4x is NOT a rebadge. Make what you want of the internal architecture ‘TE’ coding but you cannot build a Saturn VUE from the TE platform. From the latest news the SRX will now come first and the 9-4x will follow.

  The 9-5 is an Audi A6 competitor and Saab requires a ‘luxury sedan’ class vehicle. Utilizing the insignia architecture means that although being larger than its sibling it will not be bloated and over-weight. It will be on par with the A6 in weight, but the 1.6 (180hp) turbo charged engine will lighter and technically more advanced than the A6’s 170hp entry level option.

  9-5x, if we have a 9-3x on the horizon then you can be damn sure that Lo has already penned this product.

  Volvo has some real problems right now and if you look enough on the internet you will read that they are bleeding Ford dry, have too higher R&D costs, too many employees. What you won’t read is due to forcing market share for the past few years residuals have been hit severely and there is a fair backlog of unsold stock. Dealership are either loosing there franchises because they have failed to meet quarterly targets or are freely giving it up and taking on another brand. I know of two cases where that new brand was Saab.
  Volvo has been experiencing sales problems for a while the ‘credit crunch’ has brought it to the surface. Producing a Million units p.a and failing to make a profit does not look promising. Some people mention that the C30 is a complete flop and question where Saab can produce the good in the Premium Compact segment. One of the biggest problems the C30 faces is it only seats 4. The 1-series, A3, A-Class and B-Class all seat 5. I’ve spoken with a few Volvo Salespeople and they tell me it’s the deal killer. Considering this car is based on the Focus, Volvo should of kept with a more orthodox approach. Which brings me onto the Ford North American lineup which is awful at best, that’s is why they are introducing the European variants state side. Ford Europe are going through a strong product renewal at the moment and the Focus will see the end of that next year. Opel/Vauxhall on the other hand had their time a couple of years back the the new Astra and Corsa. Ford and OPEL have been playing the market-share yoyo game since the time began. OPEL’s sales are slowing down now which is why Ford is having a bit of a run. I’ll expect to see the Insignia to start leading the Mondeo next year as it is already being hit with poor residual values. The all new astra will be launched at around the same time as the all new Focus so that really will be a battle to see.

  CTM mentioned BMW I his comments and it’s pretty much what BMW done to Rover that makes me loath the blue and white badged company. The only reason why BMW bought Rover was to get their hands on Landrover’s AWD technology. Rover and Mini was not part of their master plan. Once they had introduced the X5 BMW they made some cock and bull story about Rover being too costly and need to go. Instead of lock stocking the whole lot together BMW split the lot up. The only chance of survival Rover had after Landrover was sold to Ford, was MINI and BMW decided that the concept Rover’s designers came up with before BMW ever got involved; might have some ‘legs’. So in my opinion they stole it ! Rover was passed to a group of greedy bastards who also had no interest in developing the company and just wanted to make a quick few million before ‘abandoning ship’ as the company imploded in on itself. That’s the story of the MG/Rover group, what a great show of capitalism at it’s best.

  I would go as far to say the 9-3 Air should be the first vehicle to be launched in the NG9-3 range. It is Saab’s most identifiable vehicle which has the highest residual values of the company’s range. With the ‘all season’ marketing and the unique roof mechanism, coupled with 4 seats the 9-X Air could easily carry the new 9-3 for the first 6 months.
  Saab could introduce a final fully loaded current 9-3 to help boost sales until the NG 9-3 sedan arrives.

  The original 9-X concept is based on Epsilon not Delta, so it’s larger than the A3. GM just couldn’t justify the funds for a vehicle that would at best would sell just 20,000 units globally built on a modified platform and AWD system that no other GM product could use.

  GM has made quite a few good decisions in the past 5 years. They sold their stake in FHI, cut their interest in Suzuki, cut dividend payouts, sold a percentage of GMAC, cut wages, closed under productive factories and negotiated a better UAW agreement. They turned down a Nissan/Renault tie up and got rid of Kerkorian. On the products line, they rebadge Chevy’s as GMC and sell almost just as many vehicles without hardly any further investment. They launched a fantastic new CTS 3.0 Ltr. DI, the Pontiac Solstice and they have 5 Vauxhall products in UK’s top10 selling vehicles based on good marketing decisions. Chevrolet Europe has been the fastest growing brand in the past two years and is very well received in Russian markets.

  Saab are at the dawn of a new era and far from in a mess. The fat has been trimmed they are building a very good brand image which is very much in trend with being ecologically responsible. Despite what the pundits may think ethanol will play a big part in fulfilling our demand for an alternate fuel source. XWD is a very innovative system, so much so that AUDI wish to use it for some of their future Quattro products where their more expensive torsional system is not cost effective. When it comes to platform engineering there is no difference between Audi and VW than there is between Saab and OPEL, albeit both the 9-5 and current 9-3 are heavily modified applications of the original platform. It is one of the reasons why Saab had their reins taken off of them. With the money GM gave Saab at the turn on the millennium they could have produced a new 9-3 and new 9-5. However; they would have been no more than rebadges of a Vectra and Malibu with a few tweaks. Instead Saab invested the money in creating a distinctly different vehicle that shared only 60% of the Epsilon architecture. Maybe Saab went too far, that in making the 9-3 the best they could, they sacrificed a new 9-5. However it could well be that 5 years down the line they would never be able to introduce an AWD system on a platform that wasn’t designed for such an application? It’s Dudenhoeffer’s lack of research into how Saab engineer there products and made an assumption based on how most company’s engineer their brands.
  A small niche company does have a lot going for it. When sales drop by 30% the company is dealing in X-thousand less vehicles. If you are producing 9 million units p.a. then that X becomes millions too. Saab’s advantage as a small company, is that they can react faster to market change. Unlike Volvo, Saab is tittering on break-even globally. If you just take Europe into consideration, it generates a profit. Saab see the key markets that need to be worked on and the 9-4x is part of that plan. Some refer to the 9-5 being too big, however it will be no bigger than an A4 or A6 which sell very well in Europe and Americans love big sedans too .

  If Saab was sold it wouldn’t necessarily mean the end. Providing that company genuinely wanted to invest in Saab’s future and not do a ‘BMW’ there could well be a very bright future for company under the wing of SAIC, TATA, Subaru, Renault, Mercedes, or even an Arabian investor with a passion. The hardest people to find in any job are those who enjoy it. Those who are there not just for the pay, those who’ll go the extra mile not to get points but because they care, because deep down they think of it as their own company. Saab has changed a lot in the past few years and has become very corporatized. At marketing level there are still some ‘old skool’ people who do look at a situation from a business and customer angle.

• 24 Rogan // Nov 26, 2008 at 10:26 am

  ^holy crap…. longest post ever.

• 25 Swade // Nov 26, 2008 at 10:35 am

  Rogan, whilst WooDz’s tome is indeed impressive for it’s length, girth and content, I don’t think anyone will ever beat Bill Bartman, whose comment I’m still yet to read in full.

  For the record, MS Word counts Bill’s effort at 5,592 words.

  WooDz’s was just over 2,100. Still, a majestic effort and well worth the reading. Much more so than Bill’s actually.

• 26 Nate 9-3 // Nov 26, 2008 at 12:12 pm

  VGL & Swade,

  The 9-4x will do well in America as we Yanks love our SUVs…well, I don’t, but you get the picture. As long as SAAB markets it for Safety and fuel efficiency it will do well. Think of all the SAAB-owning men whose wives (soccer moms) have stayed away from SAAB because they wanted an SUV.

  No, the 9-7x does not count.

  The 9-3x will also do well if marketed correctly. There are Subie Outbacks everywhere in the states. SAAB can target that crowd and make up some sales so long as they have a supereior product.

  What frustrates me is that there is no diesel engine option in the US. I must disclaim, that I would not drive a diesel if I had a choice vs. a gasoline engine. However, there are Volkswagen TDI Jettas everywhere in the US. Deisel fuel is for sale in every decent-sized municipality. Volkswagen is getting such a free pass when it comes to diesel technology in the states that it is not even funny. Kudos to someone at Volkswagen who made a gutsy decision years ago to bring it here. They are swimming downstream regarding deisel sales.

• 27 Joe Lobo // Nov 26, 2008 at 12:54 pm

  Swade, you are making me laugh by bringing back the incident with Bill Bartman as indeed it was the longest ever comment !!! I feel a bit guilty on this as I was one (if not the) of the provocateurs of this incident. Unless he’s changed his alias, he’s never come back. Mind you, I did enjoy very much his dialogue but this was way over the top that made you a bit grumpy.

• 28 Swade // Nov 26, 2008 at 1:16 pm

  Joe,

  Indeed, Bill’s never been back, which was his choice. I’ve only ever banned one person from commenting and right now I have no memory of who that is. It wasn’t Bill, though.

  Bill’s epic was something to behold. I wonder how he feels about Farago now, given that the whole TTAC mission has virtually become the destruction of GM.

  Funny, but Farago’s away on holidays at the moment and TTAC seems so much more readable in his absence. Technically speaking, he’s the best writer there, but the site has none of the seemingly vindictive feel to it. It’s almost like taking a breath.

  Anyway……back to the issues at hand.

• 29 eggsngrits // Nov 26, 2008 at 1:40 pm

  I can’t remember — did you have to ban that kid in Atlanta that couldn’t stop posting silly insults every other comment? Seems as though that one got out of hand.

  A-ro 85: You cannot compare European markets, especially Germany, with the US. Protectionism (high tariffs and quotas) keeps domestic makers alive there. We have no such system here. As a result, Europeans pay a very high price for cars compared to us. If the prices of Toyotas went up 8-10% tomorrow, GM’s market share would rebound overnight because they could afford to pay the heavy price for UAW’s package and still profit at a competitive price.

  I assume (perhaps wrongly so) that Australia’s unwieldy logistics would act as a natural barrier to market for foreign makers and would give domestic manufacturers an additional boost.

• 30 Kroum // Nov 26, 2008 at 1:40 pm

  Back to the issue at hand, eh mate?

  I think Farago’s absence is very positive for TTAC. Surely there ids a whole bunch of boneheads over there, but RF does seem to get them all going. Hopefully he is enjoying his time off.

  In reality, I think they really don’t care. Just look at their car reviews – there is no standardized rating scale established, a car could get thrashed in the review and still score 4 stars. Baffling.

  TTAC are really just a bunch of hippies, the way I see it. Before I’d get all worked up with them, these days I read the site for its entertainment value, but call it objestive journalism? Nah.

• 31 Markac // Nov 26, 2008 at 2:03 pm

  Actually I thought they gave the Volvo C30 quite a nice review, well better than most: “My point is, the Volvo C30 T5 is all the car you need. The more I drove it, the more I was struck by the feeling that this is exactly what a car should be”. That’s better comments than it usually gets!

• 32 1985 Gripen // Nov 26, 2008 at 3:17 pm

  The Dude abides…

• 33 ctm // Nov 26, 2008 at 6:32 pm

  Haha, I must have missed that Bill Bartman comment… Quite an effort, though.

• 34 van god los // Nov 26, 2008 at 8:05 pm

  @Woodz :

  The 1.9Tid and TTid are already in order with the Euro IV regulation (since a few years). From september 2009 on, the 1.9 Tid en TTid will also have to meet the Euro V standards.

  You know as well as I that it is very hard/impossible to say wether a modern diesel engine is better or worse then a modern gasoline engine. Let’s just say that they are different type of engines with their own advantages and disadvantages.

  But the fact is that in Europe, (at least !) 50% of the cars like the 9-3(x) are sold as diesels. In Belgium e.g., the diesels will probably be 90% of the sales of that type of car. Not offering a diesel in such a car is, from an economic point of view, plain and simpel idiocy.

  Ethanol is only popular in Scandinavia. In the rest of the world, people are very sceptic with regard to ethanol as a fuel. If people worldwide would start using ethanol as a fuel, there wouldn’t be any ground left to cultivate food …

  @Eggsngrits :

  Car prices in Europe are not higher because of protectionism (high tariffs and quotas) but (mostly) because of taxes. Those taxes are as high for imported cars as for Europe made cars.

  Hey, in Europe American cars in general are cheaper then the European and Japanese competition so the price isn’t really an issue. Brand image and quality are.

  The reason why american cars, contrary to e.g. Japanese or Korean cars, don’t sell in Europe is the same as why american cars since the 80’s are loosing market share even in the USA. Because they’re crap.

  Or to put it mildly, the engines are not up to date, too big and consume way to much fuel, sometimes they even still have 4 or 5 speed-automatic transmissions (VW now uses 7-speed dubble clutch automatic transmissions which have better fuel economy and accelarations then the manual gear boxes !), the interior plastics suck big time, the quality of the assembly is horrible, when you drive them, it feels like a boat, …

  OK, OK, they’re are improving but they’re are still far away from being up par.

• 35 a-ro 95 // Nov 26, 2008 at 9:26 pm

  @ eggsngrits
  Being an Englishman who has lived in Michigan and now lives in Germany working for an American company (Tier 1 Automotive supplier), I may have a slightly biased view but do my best to try and see the whole picture.

  As van god los mentioned there are is no protectionism for cars in Europe, it does not matter if a vehicle is produced domestically or imported the duties and taxes are the always the same, high!

  What is different is the culture, and one would expect the local manufacturers to be more attune to the local culture and markets and this is where the Detroit 3 seem to have fallen down in the US.

  Here in Europe both Ford and GM have gone through cycles of more or less independence (my father worked for Ford in England and Germany and I did my apprenticeship with Ford in the UK). But on the whole Ford of Europe appear to have normally had a bit more of a voice within their organisation then their counterparts at Opel. Ford has always been a more integrated than GM with its multiple brands. If all the Detriot 3 survive (and I believe they will, one way or another) then I think Ford will come out best.

  As far as GM and Ford are very comparable I think Volvo and Saab are 2 completely different animals these days. Volvo have a much broader range than Saab and have, at least here in Europe, changed their image to also have a slightly wider acceptance. Saab with only 2 models, are very much a small niche company. From a European point of view I think Ford did a very good job with all the brands they have been involved with, both Jaguar and Land Rover are much more efficient and produce far higher quality than they did before they joined the Ford fold and Aston-Martin bloomed under Fords wing. It is a pity that mistakes made on the US market have led to the break up of the group here in Europe.

  The UAW problem you mention was brought on by the US carmakers themselves, again by their shortsightedness, here in Europe we also have strong labour representation but by keeping the labour representatives closely informed of the plans and situation of the companies there is, I believe, a bit more give and take.

  The problem of the Detriot 3 is not the workers or the unions but the shortsightedness and inflexibility of the management and company organisations.

  As to the future of Saab, I am afraid that I am not very hopeful, I think GM maybe split into associated but independent regional companies and that Saab will disappear.

• 36 2-don // Nov 27, 2008 at 5:06 am

  Holy Sh*t! That was a long post!!!!!

  I think that IF GM can make it out of this mess and SAAB’s new lineup (2012ish) still isn’t doing well, then it might deserve that criticism. Right now it hasn’t had a fair chance to compete. It’s not fair to talk them down when they haven’t been given the tools, funding, etc. to compete with the others. At this point in time I find it incredibly difficult to put the blame on anyone but the parent company. So if you want to be pissed at someone it should be GM dude! Not SAAB. Unless you call the 9-7, 9-2, and 11 year old 9-5 an honest effort.

  The new cars look like they have a lot of potential. I just hope we get to see them.

• 37 Sport Mode // Nov 27, 2008 at 6:57 am

  a-ro 95:

  The problems with the Detroit 3 lie with BOTH the incompetent management and the idiotic UAW. Obviously there are a plethora of mistakes to choose from with the execs, but it’s also well known that it simply costs more to produce a vehicle when you’re GM than when you are Toyota. Basically a car of the same price will be have $2,000 less stuff due to the healthcare and pension costs, etc. So buy a GM car identical in price to a Japanese car, and it will suck more to the tune of a couple grand worth of features. That’s just how it is- there’s little to change the fact that GM is known for being a healthcare company that makes cars on the side.

  And Eggs is right- the purpose of tariffs is to increase the prices of goods coming into that country, in order to benefit those in that country. European countries have them for auto imports, and this adds to the price of any other car coming in. It’s that simple- so it’s not fair to say they’re all equal for the virtue of all being taxed highly. VAT taxes, etc., are different from import tariffs.

• 38 ronan // Nov 27, 2008 at 7:14 am

  I’m a recent reader of this blog (it’s excellent by the way). I’m from Ireland where I believe there is untapped latent demand for Saabs. People want something more than a Mondeo/Passat/Accord/Avensis and something different to the German offerings. Saab’s reputation as a driver’s car with quality interiors means it has a lot of appeal. (A nice interior makes it an easy car to convince the wife about.) The main concern seems to be the desirability of second hand Saabs and hence heavy depreciation and a reputation for expensive servicing.

  Personally, I think Saab could learn something from Apple in terms of how to market quality design to people who like to think of themselves as having more taste than the average bear. Saabs should be beautiful cars, beautifully driven.

  Incidentally, I can see lots of car makers copying the Skoda Superb idea of a combined hatch/saloon boot (trunk) so the choice of a Saab hatch could become moot.

  \by the wy, the European Commission has proposed €5bn funding for the euopean car sector as part of a €130bn stimulus package

  http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2008/1126/breaking8.htm

  Has anyone heard whether any of this will find its way to Saab?

• 39 Rune (the other one) // Nov 27, 2008 at 7:43 am

  van god los: “If people worldwide would start using ethanol as a fuel, there wouldn’t be any ground left to cultivate food …”

  Not much land is used today to grow crops that are turned into ethanol. A small portion of land in Brazil supplies all of Scandinavia and then some (presumably supplies Brazil’s own requirements).

  What the nay-sayers are missing:
  1. The price of grain was at an all-time low, then the oil price soared and the price of grain followed
  2. Poor peasants in third-world countries cannot make a living harvesting grain
  3. The increase in prices of food have helped farmers in e.g. Afghanistan to start food production again (rather than grow opium)
  4. Compare the amount of land used to grow tulips with the amount of land used to grow sugar…
  5. Scandinavia can utilize (much) more timber to produce ethanol… Only problem is: Sugar is less expensive. But it is feasible. (at the moment our forrests are growing dangerously dense, because the price of timber is too low to make much use of it)

  There are so many things wrong in this world. Supplying ethanol to keep the oil price low is not one of them. This actually helps the food production in the world.

  And in the end… If we continue increasing the population on this planet… Then we might end up with 10 times the population, and then, when disaster strikes, many more people will die as a consequence. We should focus more on putting a cap on population growth. Increasing the amount of cheap food is the wrong way to go. (i.e. what is worse: 1000 dead now, or one million dead ten years down the road? Small contained disaster presently, or a huge global disaster in the future?)

• 40 David Blumberg // Nov 27, 2008 at 9:46 pm

  The Dude is typically German-biased, anti-all-other-cars. I’m half-german myself and have lots of first-hand experience with Germans & German automagazines always looking down on foreign cars, and especially Saab. Very seldom will you find an article in Auto Motor und Sport or Autobild that writes something positive about Saab, if they bother writing anything about Saab at all. Those magazines will endlessly compare BMWs, Mercedes’s, Audis, Opels…

  Saab is not a mess. It has never been a mess, and today it’s close to the best it’s ever been. But it’s not there yet, it’s close, and unfortunately the economic downturn came at the worst possible time. Saab only needs a little bit more time. When those new models come out Saab will achieve profits and beyond. The company is at a very crucial time in its history, and it’s one that is very exciting.

• 41 PT // Nov 28, 2008 at 10:53 am

  Contender for Post of the Year. Hilarious. We should track all The Dudes work from here in my view. Thanks for the clarification too Gripen – I was thinking the The Dude Prevails but its Abides.

• 42 a-ro 95 // Nov 28, 2008 at 9:00 pm

  Sport Mode:

  I would just like to set one point right. Yes import duties are due when vehicles are imported into Europ but these can be reclaimed or offset by registered companies similar to VAT. Commercially imported vehicles are therefore not disadvantaged in Europe!