When this blog will end - or - please be honest and sell Saab if you’re not going to build the 9-X
Robert Farago will most likely continue his GM Deathwatch right up until he’s on his own deathbed. One thing I’ve learned about people who either are, or who believe they are, in high places is that they rarely admit that they were wrong. It’d make them look somewhat silly and in an industry like the car industry - where your work is out there for all your peers to see - you don’t want to look silly.
From what I’ve heard, the same sentiments go a long way in determining who gets appointed where. You can do two things to make yourself unemployable in the motor industry - 1) you can be totally, irretrievably incompetent at what you do, or 2) you can rock the boat. Stay within those boundaries, stick to the company line as dictated by the board, and everything should be fine.
That’s probably why Peter Augustsson is no longer at Saab. I’ve got no first hand knowledge, but from what I hear, Jan-Ake Jonsson’s predecessor wasn’t too fond of GM’s ownership of, or attitude towards Saab. That’s why he was happy to see their money spent on design elements of the Saab 9-3 that made it almost impossible to build anywhere but in Trollhattan. It wasn’t a great career move, but one man’s vehicle design terrorist is another man’s vehicle identity freedom fighter, right?
I’ve been seething over this post for a little while now, scared to write it because it’ll quite likely alienate a significant portion of the readership here. I guess it’s time to look into the eye of the storm, though.
Stephen King once wrote that occasionally you have to “kill your babies”. He was speaking metaphorically, of course, about doing some of the literary things that scare you (in his instance, he was referring to a writer preserving a manuscript that he/she should really get rid of, because despite the fact that he/she loves it, it ain’t going anywhere).
Knives out….
To the Americans reading this, please take off your patriotic hats for a moment as I’m about to make some broad sweeping generalisations that don’t necessarily apply to you - thanks
The United States market has far too much influence over what cars get designed and manufactured. Far too much influence. And what’s really annoying about it is that that influence doesn’t stem from your passion for driving, your love of twisty mountain passes or your thirst for design. It stems from two things: your geography and your wealth.
When the general population of the US has money it unconsciously demands that all car companies dance to its tune and offer the latest, the best, the fastest and strongest cars - all at a bargain basement price. Now that there’s a recession coming on over there, people are most likely going to hold out and force companies to incentivise even more. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.
That’s the money side (in the briefest of terms). What about the geography?
Bryan Nesbitt touched on it in a recent interview he gave at the New York International Auto Show. If you haven’t seen it yet, head over to Saab History and check it out. In the interview, Nesbitt talks about his experience with the differences between the US and Europe. In Europe, where everything tends to be more compact, or compressed, the compact segment has always done well. Nesbitt extends the metaphor, however, all the way down to how the European lifestyle impacts things like the size of your refrigerator.
At around 7 minutes, the video really starts to get interesting. Nesbitt states that Europe is unique among driving cultures because there, the people love to manually drive their cars. Many things are set up in a manner that enriches the driving experience. The highway system, even the geography and topography lends itself to engaged and enjoyable driving.
The US, on the other hand, is a vast place with big, wide, and largely straight highways. It’s a place where the market rules absolutely and the market for many years has enjoyed cheap fuel and big vehicles to take on these big wide highways.
So what is this, another crazed blogger with an article where America=bad?
No, it’s a slightly cheesed off blogger with an article where American=bad for Saab.
The thing that scares the bejeepers out of me is that my favourite car company is one of only two premium European car companies that I can think of that are owned by an American company. Volvo is the other. It’s late here so there may be more that I’m missing.
The point is this: Saab are European and always built their cars to be an engaging drive. Saab are a niche company.
The questions are as follows: Can a gargantuan bureaucracy like GM allow Saab to rock the boat and build something that’s so different from the rest of GM’s portfolio? Can GM even spell the word niche, let alone manage it effectively?
——
Back to the Nesbitt video.
Did you note the cautious tone that he used to talk about the 9-X BioHybrid. Bob Lutz used the same tone when he said “this is what a compact from Saab could look like and if we build it it’ll be called the 9-1″. Even Jan-Ake Jonsson used the same cautious tone.
The Saab 9-X BioHybrid came as a ray of light, much like the Aero-X did, only this time it was foreseeable that they’d actually build it. It’s new, it’s funky, it’s got room in the back and a turbo in the front. It’s a Saab in the modern sense of the word.
The problem is that they still don’t know whether it’ll get built.
BusinessWeek had a text article today about Saab’s design-led resurgence. Well, it’s about the design-led resurgence that’s planned for the future, at least. They had this to say:
Still, the company faces an uphill battle. Economic malaise in the U.S. is only likely to continue shrinking a tightening automobile market. If the designs are a hit, the company will still have to strike a delicate balance between gaining back the trust and enthusiasm of loyalists while also expanding the nameplate with new models—something it failed to do with the 9-7X and 9-2X. And the company’s rollout plans will still leave dealers waiting for new product until the end of 2009.
What’s more, it is not clear whether the 9-X will make it to production at all. Executives and analysts agree the company desperately needs an entry-level car to capture younger customers, but similar vehicles from Audi and Volvo have sold poorly in the U.S. Premium compact vehicles “have struggled, so the 9-X is really a test of the waters for us,” admits Nesbitt. The company could nix the car in the next year, but not launching the car would surely deprive it of a less costly entry point into the brand, a key to attracting affluent younger buyers.
Still, for the first time in recent years Saab’s booth at the New York show displayed new designs consumers could probably one day buy. If GM’s designers can reinvigorate the brand in the way they have revived Cadillac and Saturn, long-gone loyalists may finally have a reason to return to Saab.
I’m still feeling buoyed by the release of the Saab 9-X BioHybrid and I still retain hope for the future.
But it’s a guarded hope now. The fate of my favourite car company, a small distinctly European car company, lies primarily in the good graces of a bunch of cowboys. I don’t trust them. Not because I think they’re bad people, I just don’t trust their instincts or their training.
I think it was Don Corleone speaking to Sonny in The Godfather who said “you are who you are”. Or maybe it was Michael to Vincent in Godfather III?
The point is, at some point in time during their efforts to think Swedish, these decision makers in Detroit will inevitably revert to type. Some decision will have to be made and it’ll probably involve doing something radical to promote Saab as opposed to something conservative and company oriented, and they’ll choose to not rock the boat. And they’ll get promoted.
Car companies can survive without a presence in the US. If GM’s rejection of a genuinely Saabish concept car is based on its perceived inability to succeed in the US then my days with Saab are done. If GM cannot give the brand what it needs, all while sucking it clean of talent, then what we will be left with are memories and commemorative festivals.
The cars that wear the Saab badge now are great vehicles and whilst there remains a great vehicle in the Saab lineup then there’s a feeling of promise for things to come. But if GM make a decision to stillbirth a vehicle that has the potential to embody so much of Saab’s traditional character, and if that decision is based on little more than the fickle American market, then there’s too little Swedish identity left for me.
If it gets to that stage, then GM should sell Saab as I don’t think they’ll retain the loyalty of those who have hung around so long already.
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The truth really hurts sometimes. I can’t even think of an alternate owner where Saab would thrive as its own entity. Maybe Porsche, but then I could never afford even a used one.
I suspect GM is all SAAB has left. Porsche now owns the VW group, they don’t need nor want SAAB. Renault is commited to moving that brand further up market and are introducing Infiniti in Europe. Other than a Chinese company or possibly PSA I don’t see anywhere for SAAB to go. Tata has Jaguar so they are out of the mix. Mahindra perhaps? The point is if GM can’t get SAAB profitable, it will only get worse.
Thank you Swade for putting to paper some thoughts that I’ve also harboured for some time now. This is not to take away from the American auto industry - it is what it is and it fulfills a demand. But it brings into focus why I’ve never had one iota of interest in American vehicles. They just don’t move me in the least.
I wholly agree that American influence in the vehicle industry is overrated and swings much of the design cues amongst other foreign brands too far towards the mundane or gawdy. Saab is NOT common, cookie cutter, fashionista design. It is practical, innovative, efficient and most importantly - a driver’s car. If GM cannot market Saabs to the American market in a way that highlights the true qualities of a Saab without dumbing the design down to an appliance, then call it quits and walk away. Saab will do quite fine in other markets, thank you very much.
Saab is on the upswing of a very bright future with the recent 9x BioHybrid and 9-4x unveilings. The 9x BioHybrid is especially needed in all markets, while the 9-4x will most likely sell well only in the North American markets. Build them GM. If you can build, market and sell an abomination such as an Aztec, I should think making money on a Saab would be a no brainer.
But perhaps that proves the point as to why Saabs don’t sell as well on this continent.
So true Steven.. You have put into words what many of us would like to say, but don´t dare to.
PSA would be the ideal partner. That is if GM does not get their thumb out the A and see the rest of the world.
To much GM in Saabs today period. My 91′ 900, 93′ 900, and 97′ NG900 (Nordic stg. III) were all perfectly Saab (and then some).
Maybe it is the fact that they were/are ahead of their time. With everyone jumping to turbo power these days, why would they not turn to the worlds most experienced turbo car building company? I mean BMW’s new X6 SAV should be called an SAAB! Turbo charged engine, hatchback, seriously, they are getting beat at their own game!! If BMW can START selling turbo hatchbacks (along with numerous other manufacturers) why can’t Saab get it right in a market that they essentially created! I am going to point my fingers at the General.
Hey GM, stop marketing them as jets, instead let people know you make an excellent AUTOMOBILE for the money.
RE 9-X. We shouldn’t be that surprised really as it was just a concept car. Maybe Ford should have bought Saab instead of Ovlov - just look at the range of cars Ovlov has these days. GM is spending a pittance on Saab at the moment and it is beginning to show. Why would you market a Cadillac in Europe when Europeans, rightly so, think American cars are cr*p? Why do I say cr*p? The doors clang shut as European cars feel rock solid.
GM Canada still doesnt have pricing for the TurboX on its website but I did find the prices at Y*hoo Autos. Way to go GM, and they want me to buy a Saab. If it werent so pathetic Id laugh!
Swade, an excellent write-up! But I do agree with Frank that GM is about all Saab has left. Nonetheless, I shall speculate.
PSA may not be such a good option after all, as they have higher-end Citroens and even some Peugeots to move. I doubt small Saab will receive the necessary attention and investment from its proud French step-parents.
Renault also looks like a bad match: they have their own cars moving more upmarket now, plus Infinitis sell really well in North America (although I predict a major failure in Europe, except maybe Russia). Even top-of-the-line Nissans come into the entry-luxury market.
Porsche is not an option either - they have their hands full with VAG, and the way I see it Audi is Saab’s closest competitor. Saab with a Stuttgart parent may kill the brand.
The one likely possibility is BMW. They have already stated the intention to create an eco-friendly brand, seem to do well with small niche marques (MINI), have the engineering resources, similar teutonic cultures (no pun intended) and cash aplenty.
What other options are out there? Mercedes-Benz have got little interest in Saab’s niche, and little need for what Saab could offer. Besides, they are probably still feeling nauseous after the Chrysler affair.
Companies like Mahindra and Tata will such resources out of Saab, but unlike GM they have little to offer in terms of engineering, drivetrains and platforms. If Saab were to do everything alone they’ll be out of business in no time, regardless of who owns them.
Even Hyundai is now trying to move the brand upmarket, although a Korean parenthood is one of the more likely possibilities. In theory, at least. Saab can provide its parent with some engineering expertise, and in return receive cash injections, greater autonomy, and some limited drivetrain components.
Sad to say, but other than BMW, the General still seems to be the best parent for Saab.
Just to throw it out there, I think BMW would do a great job marketing Saab’s. They are as a whole looking for a greener market to get into and that really doesn’t fit well with their whole performance mantra. It does with Saab’s though and I think BMW could do well with a unique premium brand. It would also give them an alternative for those not interested in driving a BMW but want something of luxury status to drive(keeping sell volume still in house). If BMW was looking at Volvo at one point in time, then why not the Saab brand. Saab has alot to offer, they just need the right financial backer to set them free. Their latest concepts prove that!
I’m traveling so I do not have time for a longer comment, but as Douglas Adams (a Saab fan) once wrote:
Don’t Panic.
It could be worse. Like Vogon poetry.
I think your idea about being scared that Saab cars will not be developed to be fun, and engaging cars since it is owned by GM could of applied in the past. Yes, here in America we have large highways that are generally in a straight line.
But GM now develops every car on the big Nurbigring (spelling?). VE series, upcoming Insignia, which the 9-3 will most likely share a platform with. Heck even the US only HRR SS. Its not like GM is taking a new car, putting it on a US highway and being like yep, it can drive in a straight line, call it a day. Look at the Corvette ZR1 or the Sky RL/Opel GT/ Solstice GXP. All fun engaging cars, some that destroy your bank account and others that don’t. GM knows how to build a fun engaging car.
I don’t see why there is a question of where the 9-1 will be built. Would it not be on the new DeltaII platform and built along a new Astra and whatever else is put on to the platform? Saab can still have unique features even if this is done.
I can see why GM is being hesitant. Hatches do not succeed in the US. I’ve showed the 9-X concept to many many friends, some are car nuts and some are not. Generally, no one liked it. Even I have a hard time liking it. I would have to see a closer to production mock up before making a decision.
This also all goes back to marketing. The marketing of Saab is a joke. So GM doesn’t want to spend a ton of money and flood the airways with Saab commercials. Understandable, its a niche brand. BUT if you put any commercials on the air, they need to be high quality. Not immature jet blabbering ones. Do you see BMW, Audi, MB, Acura putting up such commercials? No. GM needs to SAVE money and just use the commercials from Europe. They think they won’t appeal to Americans, but at these the commercials would be so different they would stick and because they are so different, actually catch on. But the Jet theme HAS TO GO. Its just childish.
I honestly think Saab can work if GM will put out a new 9-5, 9-3 and 9-4x. The 9-1 could be introduced in EU at first and maybe come to the US a year later. But I think it would need to follow the debuts of the first three cars (at least in America). Make “mainstream” cars that get people interested in Saabs again, and then introduce a smaller one that younger people can afford.
Huge ramble. I won’t give up hope and Saab has a sale waiting once I graduated college haha.
My feeling is if no one can do Saab right then let it die.
Is Fiat out of the question? I know I’d love to see Alfas and Saabs in the same showroom, and I think Saab and Alfa working together make great platforms. Putting Alfas in Saab showrooms was the plan until GM sold, or rather bought its way out of its 20% share of Fiat.
You know, and this is just me being optimistic, GM’s hesitancy might have to do with the powerplant.
I have a feeling they don’t really have a “BioHybrid” up their sleeve at the moment, and at this point in America’s economic and environmental consciousness, perhaps promising THAT car… and then releasing a production model 9-1 that for all intents and purposes is the same vehicle, except with a conventional gas-burning engine, might be considered by the mass public as a “bait-and-switch”. And GM’s already toeing that line with the Volt.
In the words of Stephanie Tanner (Full House), “How Rude!!”
…. j/k
In all honesty, I believe what you are saying, Swade. Sometimes the American market does have too much influence on brands. I can say that I still don’t feel for hatchbacks either… Maybe it’s the culture raising here in America.. but I just don’t like them. Though, I think there is some ambiguity on the term “hatchback”
Hatchback = Jetta GLI, A3 or any boxy style like that…. That’s the kind that I’ve yet to acquire a taste for…
Hatchback = Mazda M6, Firebird, Mustang 1993 GT 5.0, Pontiac Solstice Coupe concept and other cars of similar slanted hatch in the back… I tend to call these “Sports hatches,” and I think they sell pretty well in the US.
As for a good possible purchaser for Saab, I would have been dead-set on Porsche purchasing them… As I feel they would still be the best possible owner for them. But as they now own VAG…. I guess BMW would be the next best, as long as the BMW pompousness could be avoided…. I think BMW has some great designed cars and excellent performance qualities, but it’s the stigma that keeps me from ever buying one….
i blame the unions. for this and pretty much everything, actually.
I still don’t understand the ‘America doesn’t like hatchbacks’ argument. The c900 hatches out-sold the sedans back in the day. The ng900/9-3 were only hatches and you see plenty of them around (at least in New England). Did Saab really see an increase in sales with the 9-3ss?
Also, it seems like VW Golfs are pretty popular in the states. Even Toyota is selling successful hatches in the states (Yaris, Prius, Matrix, Scions etc).
Anyway, I hope the 9-x does come out, and I hope my ‘99 9-3 lasts until the point where I can find a used 9-x on the market.
Apple should buy Saab… and they could: they have 20 billion just standing.
It will never happen, for 1000 reasons, but their mindset is what Saab needs. It would be perfect.
Definitely Fiat/Alfa/Lancia. They already have a history with Saab and share engines.
Italian cars are fun to drive, and Swedish cars are durable, so combining the two is a win/win.
People keep saying that hatchbacks don’t sell in the US, yet if you ask them to name the notable sales successes of the past 20 years, they will mention SUV’s, minivans, the Prius and the Mini. Go figure…
Talonderiel - the Jetta GLI is most definitely a 3-box SEDAN, not a hatchback. You’re thinking of the Golf GTI.
I also think FIAT is a likely owner for Saab, certainly moreso over BMW. It seems like Saabs would compete with lower-end BMW’s, so why would BMW want to spend money to destroy some of their market share?
and it’s not like Fiat/Saab/Alfa are unfamiliar with each other - Alfa 164/Saab 900/Lancia Thema, anybody?
I realize that this conversation has turned largely to “who could own Saab without killing them” but I’m going to take a different direction.
The reason you have to incentivize a vehicle to sell it is because it isn’t different enough to stand on its own.
BMW brought the Mini Cooper to the USA at a time when we (Americans) were not clammoring for more efficient small cars. The “conventional wisdom” at the time was that every American wanted an SUV (after all, that’s waht begat the 9-7x).
Did BMW have to offer sales and rebates? Nope.
Same for the VW Bug. Very different … and sold well despite horrendous service and build issues.
Others to add to the list (at one time or another in the last 20 years): Mazda Miata, Saturn Sky/Pontiac Solstice, Dodge Viper, Chrysler PT Cruiser, Ford Mustang (retro-redesign), Ford Thunderbird, Honda DelSol, Nissan Xterra … at some point in time, these vehicles were in such demand — because they were different — that many dealers charged a premium over MSRP to get one. (And this list is in no way comprehensive.)
Many of these cars share parts and platforms with others, which proves that GM doesn’t HAVE to homogonize their lineup … what you gain in production efficiency may actually cost you sales.
Ironically, it appears that GM is afraid to give Americans something truly different. America used to celebrate things, BECAUSE they were different. Now all we get are cars that want to be Honda Civics or Accords … and because they even fail at that, they have to pay us to buy it, rather than going to get the car that they thought they wanted to be.
Born from jets? Nah. Think Different. uh, yup.
I’ll give you a small hint of what I think Swade will write about here in just a few hours time…
US Sales data - March 2008
GM Passenger Cars: -14%
Saab: +4.4%
Hahaha ctm.
I think Saab needs to bring the 9-1 as it will allow younger people to enter the brand. Also I’m even considering it for a next car. I currently have a 9-3 and rarely use all its space. Only when I’m moving between apartments or something.
The thing about the 9-X is its so different is people either hate it or love it and in general those type cars, actually sell really well.
If the technology isn’t really there. Than just produce the car with the 1.4 Turbo and introduce the BioPower and Hybrid versions a year later. Thats how most car launches are done anways.
And like I said, I don’t understand why people keep talking about where it could be built. Put it in a plant that is producing Delta II and call it a day.
ctm -
Wow … I thought I was seeing more ’08s in the wild … and when I was at the dealer the other day the incentives on the ’07s were so ridiculous that I really seriously had to do the math on buying an ‘07 SportCombi.
The only things that stopped me is that my ‘99 has been behaving (maintenance-wise) and I don’t want to take on a payment for a car I’d drive out of warranty in 18 months. … now when they start showing up as certified used cars.
If there is a market for the 9-4X in the US, then I’m sure there is a market for the 9-1 in Europe. Why should the 9-1 depend on success in the US? Forget the US, the 9-1 is a car for Europe!
Saab sold more than 80,000 cars in Europe in 2007. I bet 60-70 percent were the 9-3. If they can sell 50,000-60,000 units of the 9-3, then why shouldn’t they be able to sell 30,000-40,0000 units of a cheaper entry model? And I’m pretty sure that equals or exceeds the expectations for the 9-4X in the US.
Eh was Saab beaten at its own design language. At least in the greenhouse..
http://www.kia-world.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/03/kia-soul-production-ready.jpg
Theres no doubt we(NA) suffer not only from Saablite, but autolite in general. Nobody really DRIVES over here anymore, judging by the high % of autotrans in all models. Most are content to sit in traffic, in their eurojapo statusmobiles with their Starbucks.
Consequently, turbos, real 5/6spd trannys, even diesels are way off the radar for most. Truly a shame GM has never let Saab be Saab worldwide, with all models available.
@Charles
I think there’s a subtle difference: that’s a black A-pillar, with a squarish windshield (like Skoda or Range Rover do), while in Saab the pretended effect is the one of a continuous glass surface, with the curved windshield extending to the sides of the car. Like a… cockpit!
That design cue is quite evident in the 9-x (and one of the reasons I can’t like the 9-4x, which fails brutally in that regard).
GM is dying. Much of the US car industry is dying, because it only has one true market (North America) and because the businesses have such huge, crippling liabilities for pensions etc. So as part of GM, Saab must die with it, unless GM can sell it. And there isn’t a buyer out there.
GM has NEVER “got” Saab. GM thought it liked what Saab stood for, and liked its approach to a unique “premium” product. But you can’t reduce Saab down to a brand consisting of a badge, a turbo (or perhaps not - 1.8i anyone?!) and a key in the centre. A true Saab fundamentally has to be designed by people who are not constrained by what everyone else is doing and can use their ingenuity to solve problems that the majority haven’t even thought of. However, a true Saab could never be made to be profitable, and that will apply especially strongly in the current car market. Catch 22…
I love all my Saabs, I have never owned anything else, but I can’t see how it’s going to stay that way for very much longer.
This discussion is similar to the one that Saturn loyalists have been having, only in reverse. They see a loss of uniqueness with platform sharing and the passing of polymer body panels. But what they complain about most is the re-badging of European cars (Opels) as Saturns. The Saturn Astra, for example, is almost 100% Euro-spec.
Since GM has no qualms about bringing Euro-cars to the US, how does it then follow that it has an aversion to designs that are not US-market-centric? If GM is just a bunch of cowboys (can non-Americans please think of some other way to be dismissive of us…the “cowboy” thing doesn’t cut it here), then how come GM’s Opel Corsa and Astra are among the top 5 selling cars in Europe? How come Shanghai GM is the #1 foreign auto company in China? Provincialism is not the problem.
Neither is the problem one of trying to sell “European” cars here. The German marques, for example, have all done rather well, especially when they showed the foresight to BUILD them here as well.
I think the problem is one of economics. Saab is a tiny player in the US market and the sales/service network is nearly invisible outside of the East Coast, West Coast and Colorado. Depreciation has historically been severe and repair costs higher than normal. Since Americans spend more time in their cars than anyone else on the planet, they expect a degree of reliability and economy that some automakers (like Fiat and Renault) simply could not provide here. The US market once accounted for half of all Saab sales worldwide. Repeating that feat at a profit now, when the USD is weak, would be very difficult, no matter what models are sold here. Trying to do that with a biohybrid car at a time when the the ethanol delivery infrastructure is largely absent from the states that form Saab’s core market area is also a problem.
Is there a way that Saab can afford to sell niche vehicles and still make a buck? I think so. 1) Make them here. 2) Sell us the TTiD’s that the rest of the world gets. This way GM can reduce its currency risks while expanding its market appeal with a power plant that’s tailor made for our nice long interstate highways. Having done those two things, it could then afford to make and sell cutting-edge cars like the 9-X.
As a veteran Saab Salesman/owner I always chuckle(or stifle a scream ,depending on mood..lol!)when people talk about the designs of prototypes/concepts as being too “love it or hate it”divisive.THATS EXACTLY WHAT OUR CARS SHOULD BE!I really don’t ever forsee Saab selling in numbers to rival any Japanese brand….I don’t see us ever competing with the German big Three.So lets glory and bask in our eccentricities.Lets make the cars the most edgy,fuel efficient,”green”and fast as stink cars on the planet.Why make a car that appeals to the masses when the “masses” our never going to embrace the car?Screw “BORN FROM JETS”!!does anyone remember “SAAB…FIND YOUR OWN ROAD!”
Well done Swade, get it out there. Last thing you need now is repressed anger. OK enough of the new age male crap.
On GM’s ownership:
GM is as good a owner as any, they might be American but they have a ‘General-ly’ sporty overtone. Saab is the sporty-Swede and GM fits. Volvo remains the conservative Swede and Ford Fits. For all the rants about Ford letting Volvo be Volvo and their extensive model line-up, Volvo is still losing undisclosed amounts of money. Being in every segment is not the sole solution, being profitable is every segment you service is the solution.
On building the 9-X:
It is well known in the industry that small cars equal very small margins. MB does not even sell A or B class models in the US. The main reason is that it would actually devalue the brand image as they do not fit the traditional MB mould. I suspect one of the other reasons is that they could not command enough of a premium to recoup the costs of making them and shipping them there. Small cars only make sense from very high-volume factories or factories close to the end market, ideally both.
Yes the 9-X will possibly not even make it to the US but that’s why GM/Saab launched it in Geneva as opposed to the 9-4X being launched in Detroit. I have no doubt that the 9-X/9-1 will be built. More important though are the 9-5 and the 9-4X as these are the cars that will earn more money if done right and that is truly the bottom line.
As for the comments about driving attitudes in the US. Australia is not far off, Saab only imports auto Sportcombis here and manuals are special order. This applies to Saab in general as I regularly check the used market here and less than 1 in 5 are manuals. There is no doubt that 9-X would do OK here though.
Sad to say that SAAB is the only “original” brand GM has left.
Look at the G6 and the Cobalt or the Sky and the Solstice.
We are original
We are great
We are leaders.
Market us that way!!!
make a commercial showing how every car is turbocharged and has been that way since the early days.
show the great passing power they have
show the vast cavern that is the cargo hold and you will sell them.
“born from jets” does not fly (no pun intended)
I greatly appreciate your passion for Saab. But I feel you’re overreacting on this one. My humble opinoin is that the Saab 9-X is quite ugly. However, I think Saab’s future looks bright with or without it:
-XWD versions of a sharp looking restyled 9-3 is a great thing. This car can be very competitive, and surely we’ll see interior improvements soon.
-The ‘more aggressive’ looking 9-3 Sportcombi is on the way, very much looking forward to that one. Can almost view this car as a crossover.
-The 9-4X looks great to me so far and has a great chance of being a competitve car in the crossover market.
-The new 9-5 could be a stunner.
Of course we haven’t seen the 9-5 yet, but all of the above cars still retain ‘Saab-ness’ to me. I can see myself being a potential customer for all of those models.
1. Born from Jets is the result of GM employing an advertising agency then telling them what to do. Typical behaviour of this type of company and management.
2. I’ve just returned from the US and drove around 2000 miles in a little over a week through 5 states. 99% of the cars i saw were HUGE truck like things (Landcruiser is considered small) and the rest were Audi A4’s. Admittedly the first 2 cars I saw at LAX were a 9-2 and a 9-5, but they were the last. Sedans are a small market in the US from my experience.
Once the current 9-5 goes SAAB’s will just be the niche market brand of the GM Opel, and in North America Saturn will be the mass market brand of the GM Opel.
If SAAB needs to be married to anyone I’d like it to be Fuji Heavy Industries. They have already taken a good chunk of loyal SAAB customers, may as well take the brand also. God knows Subs could stand some more comfortable seats.
Richo, not sure what states you drove through, but if you only saw trucks and A4s, are you sure you where in the USA? The Toyota Camry and Honda Accord are the 2 top selling “cars” in the USA. They combine for approximately 700,000 sales annually. If you did not see one of those I’m shocked.
I actually really like the Fuji Heavy/Saab partnership idea, those brands share the same customer base and Subaru has failed time and time again to move upmarket. I think that their design philosophies and engineering ideas would mesh well.
I’d still really like to see Saab end up in the hands of Porsche or Renault. Porsche may own VAG but that doesn’t stop them from building models that compete with VAG products (like the 911 versus the R8/Gallardo, the Cayenne versus the Touareg/Q7, the TT versus the Boxster, or the Panamera versus A8). If anything, I could see Porsche owning and properly managing Saab as a strong way of saying that they are still very much interested in staying separate from VW. If the Porsche Family’s words are to be believed, that is still very much their intention. A Porsche-owned Saab would bring Mauer back into the fold and could well lead to the best Saabs ever made (think Porsche engine quality and handling with VAG-quality interiors, it’s enough to make me giddy)
Renault could also work, as Renault is another brand that has consistently failed to move upmarket, and I can see Infiniti having the same problem that Cadillac does when it comes to appealing to Europeans (too large and flashy, no good upscale small cars). Given Ghosn’s turnaround job with Nissan/Infiniti, I’d love to see what he could do to Saab.
PSA would also be nice, I just look at their designs and I’m sure that they’d be more than willing to give Saab the edgy, look-like-nothing-else-on-the-road designs that the brand deserves, not to mention access to their excellent platform stable.
@Alex
In fact, if you check the price range, Porsche and VAG (including Audi, Lamborghini and Bugatti) offerings never overlap, except for the Touareg/Q7/Cayenne (which was a given since they decided to share the platform).
I just wish PSA could just buy Saab from GM, or maybe a private bank or something, because this could never work under the current leadership and beancounting done at GM.
Its just no commitment after years and years of being promised “full commitment”. Its not that hard to become profitable! All we need is 2 more good models to run next to the 9-3. I’m afraid to say that when the “ALL NEW” A4 hits the floor (along with the A5 convertible that will replace the A4 convertible), the 9-3 will be losing sales by the masses.
GOOD NEWS in all this? the U.S. market is UP!!!
I am honestly surprised GM has not sold SAAB. GM has too many brands as it is. GM is making money everywhere except the USA. This is not sustainable. Ford realized this (at least Mulally did) and they jetisoned Jag and LR. Ford needs to prune at least 2 brands, SAAB and Hummer are the easiest to sell from a product stand point. Opel can move into SAABs position in Europe and that would free GM to push Caddy as much as they want in Europe. Caddy just does not have the right product mix for Europe and I think GM knows this. The next BLS will be on a rear drive platform, with diesel engines. As for a bank of PEG buying SAAB, that would be the worse possible outcome. They would be in it for the quick buck and have no automotive experience. PSA is SAABs best hope. A European company with no premium cars to speak of. They also do not sell in the USA so that should make SAAB attractive to them. They also know small cars and make very good small engines including diesels.
Thanks. I enjoyed reading your bi-monthly hand-wringing rant about GM owning Saab. Good chance to get a little Yank bashing in as well, and encourage the commenters to do the same. Hope youall feel better now. Just let it all out. It’s cathartic.
How often have I ever gone Yank bashing on this site, Sam? If you can find more than five posts out of 4,000+ then you’ll be doing well. And where did I encourage the commenters to do the same?
I get a chuckle reading the wet dream comments from those that are just sure that Saab and Porsche would be a bang up match. Or maybe it is BMW or Mercedes. No, make that the French. Yeah, that’s it - Peugeot and Citroen. Or was it Subaru? It’s just so hard to remember. Anybody but GM apparently.
Nobody has yet explained to me just exactly what Saab has to offer one of those manufacturers. Turbo technology? Sorry, they all have it already. Diesel technology? Biofuel technology? Ditto. Safety technology? Blond haired spokesmodels? Pictures of Moose? I’m still waiting.
I see three futures for Saab. (One) with GM, (two) with a Chinese or Indian company looking for some street cred, and (three) as a memory.
The American car market may have too much influence in the designs of car manufacturers. Since I live here it is hard to see the view from elsewhere. But almost every car company in the world either sells here, or wants to. It has to do with the 16+ million annual sales, or something (you’re making my case for me - SW). The Germans don’t seem to have that much trouble selling their wares in our country, with the exception of a few models. MB has started selling Smart cars, BMW sells Mini Coopers - not to mention the Japanese and Korean companies that sell a ton of small sedans and hatchbacks.
If all you people that are so sure you know all about Americans and the car market here (Yup, by golly, I watched all the Dallas and Miami Vice episodes!), then how do you explain all those small cars that are selling just fine here?
Do you realise that the vast majority of comments here are from the US? - SW
I don’t see any reason why Saab can’t sell a 9/1 model here and in Europe as well. If it is a good vehicle sold at a fair price it will do well. The pictures you put on the site made it look kind of homely, but what the heck. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and homely cars haven’t stopped Subaru from selling a ton of cars in the US.
Sam, I don’t ordinarily respond to comments like that, but your response seemed to smell a little contemptuous and where responses are warranted, I’m in the frame of mind to give them right now (i.e. various things in life have my patience and tolerance levels significantly lower than usual. The lesson - don’t prod a recovering ex-smoker on his own site).
This is not an Yank-bashing blog and I’ve been extremely supportive of GM’s ownership of Saab over the years, often in the face of significant opposition. That doesn’t mean I don’t have grounds nor the right to make an observation when I feel that one is warranted, as was the case here. - SW
Response from one angry American. Saab owner of 21 yrs (and Porsche for 12 and MB for 7), and a former auto industry investment analyst. Swade you have it part right but also very wrong in some ways. The USA market put Saab on the map did it not? Specifically the Northeastern USA which has oftentimes accounted for huge percentages of Saab worldwide sales. They have never sold enough cars outside the USA to justify existence and the USA has always been its biggest market. Just ask that fella Bob Sinclair. BTW we don’t buy alot of American cars here in the Northeastern USA. And there isn’t a straight highway within 250 miles (and 40mm people) from where I am sitting now. So the issue IS NOT the US market at all. Its the Midwest-USA centric US auto companies like GM that are the issue and as a result of the shortcomings you accurately describe they have totally lost both coasts (where the vast majority of the nation’s wealth lies) to imports. I find it quite funny you all seem to think American automotive tastes are sweeping the world and dictating design/engineering to the world market! Quite the opposite is true. Cadillac CTSs and STSs try to be more like BMWs nowadays. I am seeing Smart cars on the streets of Manhattan and mid -tier US cars openly ape the Japanese styles. Remember the early 60s MBs with the tail fins?? THATS when America ruled the auto world! Today the Japanese and Europeans rule and all companies want to be Toyota, Honda or BMW. You ever hear any auto exec saying they want to be or have products like Ford, GM or Chrysler? No, I think not. Blame us for bad Hollywood movies, destructive pop culture and dreadful music if you will. But the auto industry is dominated by the Asians and Europeans period. Need mathematical proof? Look at the sales results. Big 3 in terminal decline over last +20 yrs and being displaced by US built imports no less! Saab’s future is very tenuous because GM is unable to niche market anything as you accurately describe. Ford (USA) and Chrysler even worse. Lutz though is a marketing genius and he has the power and position to give Saab the support it needs to succeed. He put BMW on the map in the USA in the 60s and is about as “European” as an American can get. GM MIGHT be able to make Saab into something. They have had some success with Cadillac in N America and some brands and models outside N America recently that one can point to. But Saab is now and has been a “basket-case” for many years and needs a total make over. Product, marketing $$ and dealer reach/geography in the USA all lacking right now. Perhaps high fuel prices will bring back the popularity of the Turbo again in the USA? In terms of getting Saab sold it all depends on what the product pipeline looks like and how much support GM is willing to give the buyer. No new models coming or not enough support means no bid. GM is not in that bad a financial shape right now so I do not expect a sale of Saab. They will try to make it work for now IMO.
Vance, first of all, welcome.
Secondly, paragraphs. I don’t mean to sound like a smarta$$ but they really do make things more readable.
Third, I think you make some great points there, but I think you missed a little of my point along the way. Yes, the Japanese are definitely ruling the world right now. They have the #1 seller and it seems they’re the only ones (collectively) still consistently growing in the current tough times.
My claim of too much American influence isn’t in terms of the world market and companies wanting to be like GM, Ford or Chrysler. My claim of too much American influence is twofold: in terms of design (i.e. big, auto, 3box sedan etc - though that influence is waning slightly) and in terms of dollars i.e. where the market gets squeezed and people want everything for next to nothing.
Conditions like that kill good cars. That’s why I have access here in Australia to a wider variety of cars than what you’ve got there. It’s not because they’re bad cars, it’s because the market conditions don’t make it worthwhile selling them there. Sure, you get your cars cheaper but you don’t get the choice.
Saab are a distincly European company and that’s a prime part of their makeup. It’s one of the reasons that I love them. My main worry is whether or not a board in Detroit is going to give a rat’s about that little company if there’s a bump in the road. The apprehension over the 9-X seems to be a good litmus test for this and I’ll be keenly observing how things turn out and why.
It’s about more than the badge, it’s about the identity as well. I gave the 9-7x a pass because I understood the reasoning, I saw a genuine effort to change the car in fundamental ways, and there was/is hope for the future.
But if the future is all going to be based in conditions in the US market - which isn’t Yank-bashing, it’s just the things that GM have identified as the hurdles - then I’m not sure the future is so bright or if I want to continue investing myself in the brand the way I have for the last few years.
BTW Swade, a little ray of light. Bob Lutz has made it clear that a Holden VE based coupe (Coupe 60)/Pontiac GTO will not go ahead as well as there being a hold on the Covette C7 as GM needs to focus on fuel-economy, advanced gearboxes and altervative fuel cars. Sounds like CAFE possibly means American=Not so bad for Saab.
BTW Swade, who you callin cowboys, you Taswegian red-necked hillbilly. Go have a hamburger, you’ll feel much better… for a few minutes anyway…. then you’ll feel really bad.
Wow.
I’d heard about the Coupe60 being concept only, but I didn’t know about the C7. That’s gotta smart!
I’ve long believed that the Saab philosophy of getting more from less what the right one to take going forward. They just never had the capital to back it up.
Here’s to better times.
Vance has it right. Whatever the benefits to Saab that independence from GM might bring, it means nothing if the brand goes under. No $$ = starved product development, shrinking dealer network and a minuscule ad budget.
Preserving a purely Swedish vision of Saab is illusory in a world where most brands need offshore manufacturing and design facilities plus deep corporate pockets to survive. And selling a smaller car in the US is not doomed by any ingrained need for bigness. VW presumed that a “bigger is better” approach would work here and flopped with their Phaeton and Touareg. Many here would welcome some Polos and Corsas to go with our Scions, Golfs, Civics and Corollas.
Whether a Saab 9-X works for the American market depends as much on execution as on the product itself. That’s how Toyota was able to create a silk purse (the Scion XB) out of a sow’s ear (the Toyota Echo.) For that, Saab needs GM. Whether GM delivers remains to be seen.
For the record, I’m not advocating a sale of Saab except as a point of last resort. I know that at this point, Saab’s best shot at a future is under GM’s ownership.
I’m advocating that GM give Saab their head and allow them to make the vehicles they can make, with full backing and support. I’m also sceptical that a US-centric board will allow that to happen, the evidence of which we’re seeing in small pieces with their apprehension about the 9-X.
Let Saab be Saab and let them build Saabs that people will want to buy.
Yes friend I see your concerns more clearly now. I have two comments…
Firstly, although the USA market is a v large and profitable market its a mistake to consider it homogeneous. Its anything but. For example
Porsche, Subaru and many others are successful niche sellers. And Honda, Toyota, VW and BMW all started that way and moved onto bigger footprints as their followings grew.
Many of these companies could not have been successful without a niche in the US mkt. So you may not be enjoying ANY of these cars in Australia without these USA mkt niches.
That whole process is ongoing still. Mind what we call a niche in volume terms might be a best-seller in some countries. Thats why USA market is so critical. Its v hard to get profitable volumes without it. Especially true for non basic transport vehicles.
So I think USA market is an enabler of variety in the auto market not a killer of variety net on balance.
What limits my choice in USA mkt is NOT local tastes IMO which on the coasts is very international. Its more the DOT safety, smog and “type-approval” stuff which is very expensive here. Also its v hard to sell a car unless it has a nationwide service network cause people do move around alot here and send kids and cars to college on the other coast etc. Setting up that network is v expensive for a car company.
Its also low fuel costs. Since fuel is much cheaper here it results in substantial vehicle size differences with the rest of the world and more 3 box auto trans etc. Also our oil industry is built around mogas and not diesel (somewhat driven by EPA rules) which limits engine choices too. But alot of this will be equalized in coming years I bet!
You are quite right to be concerned about the Board sitting in Detroit though. Decades of bad decisions by mgmt and unions (much of which I was witness to in the 80s-90s) have almost killed these companies off. These guys are incapable of niche marketing and “bootstrapping” a brand like BMW did with the Mini, or VW with Audi. Criminally clueless bureacrats.
BUT of the Big 3 (so-called) GM has the most promise. Lutz def knows how to do this. The question is can he push GM to do the right things? If he can muster the proper focus for a long enough time period it MIGHT work. But I totally agree. Its still a long shot because the mkt is so hugely competitive now.
I take it your concern is that Saab can’t be a success in GMs eyes unless it hits certain USA “norms” in style/engineering/tastes that will garner significant volumes. Well friend fact is that its also true for all new Porsches, BMWs, MBs, Audis etc etc.
Those cars vary very little outwardly from country to country and have lost little/none of their “German-ness” IMO. So thats the essence of Lutz’s mission. Make Saab distinctive enough so you can charge premium pxs and make $$ (Sinclair’s Rule) but make it appeal to enough people to garner significant volumes (over time). Exactly what he did with BMW. Not easy to do within the GM mother-ship though I agree.
As I’ve said from the start, the 9-1 has the potential to be Saab’s best selling model in every country bar the US. It’s popularity would grow in the US, but this will take time.
Unfortunately GM’s myopia seems to view Saab primarily as a US brand when it’s roots are European. It needs to overcome this mentality and soon or Saab will be no more.
BMW have said they would like to add another brand to their stable and Saab have never really competed directly with them, so I think BMW would make an excellent buyer.
Vance,
Your insight is truely spot on and much appreciated.
Swade, the thing you mentioned that stuck out to me the most is how these new vehicles hinge on the US market. European vehicles should be made for europe, and what that all encompasses is why many americans buy them.
It seems as if GM still, after all these years, doesn’t understand what makes a european brand and its attributes attractive in the US.. from the brand experience, to the emotions, to the marketing, and everything in between.
I am also afraid that if Saab fails to deliver with the 9X or the 9-4X, we’ll continue to have serious problems on our hands.
If GM doesn’t let Saab build the 9-1 it’ll be the biggest nail it can drive into Saab’s coffin. Who cares if the 9-1 isn’t the top selling Saab in the US? It sure as hell will be in the UK, Europe and elsewhere. By comparison, I predict the 9-4x will be a good seller in the US, but only average anywhere else. The SUV/CUV market really isn’t huge outside of the US.
If Saab isn’t permitted to make a 9-1, many long standing Saab fans will desert the brand. Waiting to 2012 on the prospect that the next 9-3 might be something other than another boring 4 door sedan/wagon, is unpalatable to me and I’m sure to many others.
The 9-1 is in many ways, a make or break car for Saab. Not making it will almost certainly break them.
I’m a European and I have only visited the US once, last week actually.
On my visit we drove I-95 from New York City to Washington D.C. I was very surprised to see that there were so many Japanese cars on the roads: Toyota, Lexus, Honda, Accura, Nissan, Infinity. There were some German cars like Audi, BMW and Mercedes and also some Saab 9-3. But very few Volvos. That was strange. To me it seemed like there were 45% American and 45% Japanese cars, and 10% European.
I was also very surprised to see that there weren’t as many big cars as I had expected. The majority seemed to be similar in size to the 9-3 or 9-5. But I guess they all had large engines.
Anyway, my drive made me realize that the American car market is much more complex and diverse than I thought it would be.
Jesse: I’ve always wanted to debate the sales of the NG900/OG9-3 versus the 9-3SS. On a year by year basis, I don’t think the sedan has managed to beat the hatch. Maybe it hasn’t even matched it? If the OG9-3 started to loose sales, it was because it was comparatively old and dynamically a bit dated, not because it was a hatch.
I truly hope that Saab make the next 9-3 in a hatch as well a sedan and especially a coupe/hatch. Even if all that comes at the expense of a wagon? In the meantime they have to make the 9-1, for so many reasons.
James: GM “saved” Saab from being grabbed by Fiat. At the time, many people thought that was a good thing. Are they still so sure?
I think Swade should buy Saab (Swaab?) — for a time, there was Saab/Scania, but I think the time for Saab/Tasmania has arrived. It could work…it HAS to work!
As an American who has long been puzzled by the automotive tastes of our general population, I agree with many of the points raised.
As a closet Saab-luster, to hear rumblings of Swade abandoning the brand makes me nervous though. WTF? As much as I like the 9-3 though, I’m holding my breath for the new 9-5. Please, GM, don’t eff it up…
ome folks have mentioned BMW as a possible buyer. It is true BMW is contemplating a 4th brand, however it won’t be SAAB. BMW is looking for a city car (possibly electric) as the main stay of their Eco brand. I don’t see SAAB as a micro car brand. As for GM management, I think they have very capable execs in charge now. If you look at GM’s operations, they make a profit in every region except North America. This is their biggest problem since NA is their largest market. GM-Europe turned a profit last year, mostly due to Opel and Chevrolet, so they clearly understand the European market. I don’t think GM has done a good job reconciling SAAB and Cadillac. I have driven the new CTS and it is a very good car, different from SAAB obviously but they are in the same segment, entry level luxury.
This has been one of GM’s strategies over the years, multiple cars in the same segment. I don’t think this strategy works in the premium segment. For example, in the USA Toyota has one mid-size car, the Camry. GM has four, Saturn Aura, Chevrolet Malibu, Pontiac G6 and Buick Lacrosse. While GM tries to differentiate them, the fact is they are all within a few hundred dollars of each other and clearly compete for the same buyer. SAAB can be successful for GM but it will never sell in enough volume to make a profit without sharing platforms, engines and other major components. By definition this means SAABs can’t be the cars they where before GM bought them. There is a reason why SAAB-Scania sold the car division in the first place, it was losing money. GM has not reversed that trend, the money has been allocated for new products so we will see what happens.
Anyone look at those USA sales figures in the blog post above this one?
Biggest Loser: Hummer
Biggest Winner: Mini
American tastes are changing, if only gradually.
Excellent discussion!
Frank, that sums everything up quite nicely. The bottom line in any business operation is what drives the business in the first place. We have Saab cars today because 60 years ago the aircraft manufacturer wanted profits and business diversification.
As harsh as it may sound to some, Saab is not a government-funded spearhead of Swedishness and hatchbackness around the world.
Porsche/VAG/MAN stopped themerger of VOLVO and SCANIA a couple of years ago. Just afterwards, VAG bought round about 20% of SCANIA´s shares. Recently, they tried to take over SCANIA. Now, they got SCANIA. Producing lorries is highly profitable. But cars?
There are a couple of so called premium cars. Actually, nobody needs Saab. The only problem for GM might be, not to strenghten their competitors through withdrawing from the Swedish company car market. Just guess, Swedes, like their southern neigbours, like Bimmers and Audis.
Sorry to get you all worked up Swade, I didn’t mean to be insulting or to attack you. I was just in a snarky mood last evening, and took it out in your comments section. Please accept my apology.
No worries at all, Sam. I knew I’d take some flak for the post but just felt I had to tip the balance just at that point. Your contributions are always welcome.
I’m as big a critic of GM as the next guy. Lord knows between greedy inept management and greedy inept unions, they have pretty much trashed the high US market share that they once had. I long ago quit feeling sorry for them. But at the same time, I get tired of all of Saab’s problems being laid on their doorstep. I recall a commenter here from a couple of weeks ago claiming that the poor service they had received at a dealership in Sweden was somehow GM’s fault, as though someone in Detroit was phoning Sweden and telling them to ignore customers. Perhaps it is a compliment to think that GM is so omnipotent that they control everything a dealer does halfway round the world, but not very realistic.
Admittedly, I lose patience with those persons overseas that seem to think they know about the US but have never set foot here. I don’t claim to know anything about Australia or Europe because I have never been there. I try to learn more, mostly by reading blogs and news reports from other areas (I am a reader of your fellow countryman Tim Blair, for instance.) However, reading about a place from 4000 miles away isn’t the same as being there. And given the poor quality, inept reporting about the US that I read in foreign newspapers, it is no wonder that people are so misinformed. (The US media is every bit as inept.)
I think Saab is more important to GM then we are lead to believe. They have placed Saab at the head of deve