Some more on diesels in the US
Automotive News had an article today about an assessment being done in Washington on diesel engines, including light duty diesels, for the US. I don’t have a link and I couldn’t see the story due to the fact that I don’t have a subscription. But in my AN email alert the story started like this:
A panel of outside experts advising federal regulators about available technologies for improving fuel economy will include light-duty diesel engines in its final report.
In an interim report made public today, the panel said developments in emission controls indicate that modern diesels will be able to comply with U.S. clean-air regulations.
This will be an interesting report, and the US manufacturers will be right up against it if the report talks favourably about light duty diesels, which that paragraph indicates it might. GM have diesels in their medium duty vehicles (read as light commercial vehicles) but have so far resisted all calls for diesels in passenger cars in the US. They cite the added cost of the engine as well as higher fuel costs in the US.
In fact, they’ve written a whole article about it at GM Next, almost as if they knew this report was on it’s way.
There’s a lot of diesels coming into the US in the next few years from a number of Euro and even Japanese manufacturers. If increased demand for good quality diesel fuel leads to suppliers meeting the market and reading the trend for more, then GM’s going to look a little silly.
Actually, they already do. The US market is going to love the modern diesel when it gets hold of it. Guaranteed. The issues of price and supply are short-to-mid-term at most.
I started this blog in February 2005 and I’ve been carrying on about diesels here since around March 2005. Given their new Euro-focus, Saturn now offer GM a viable reason to invest in 50-state compliance for 1.9 diesel, botht the TiD and TTiD versions.
I’ll await that report with interest and in the meantime, the diesels will keep coming.
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Thanks for the news Swade - seems like GM definitely isn’t talking about bringing diesel Saabs to the US anytime soon
I found this about the Automotive News article on a VW forum:
“Diesels weighed for fuel-saving potential Harry Stoffer
Automotive News
February 20, 2008 - 3:40 pm ET
WASHINGTON — A panel of outside experts advising federal regulators about available technologies for improving fuel economy will include light-duty diesel engines in its final report.
In an interim report made public today, the panel said developments in emission controls indicate that modern diesels will be able to comply with U.S. clean-air regulations.
The potential of diesel engines to reduce fuel consumption by as much as 30 to 40 percent over comparable gasoline engines justifies their inclusion on the list of available technologies, the interim report said.
. . .
Diesels were left out of the earlier study because they could not meet clean-air standards. Hybrids, then considered a niche technology, also will be included in the new report.
But the panel said it must continue to concentrate on how to improve vehicles powered by gasoline engines, which still power ” the vast majority of vehicles,” the panel said.
The updated study will not deal extensively with all-electric or fuel cell vehicles because ” the committee does not expect commercialization of fuel cell vehicles or widespread marketing of all-electric vehicles before 2020,” the interim report said.”
Well, GM does have a light-duty diesel technology through Saab. Why wouldn’t that suffice?
With current diesel prices in the US equal to or higher than that of premium unleaded, combined with the premium cost of a diesel equipped car versus its regular fuel counterpart-diesel cars will remain a hard sell in the US-despite its promise of increased economy. Hybrid cars are a smarter bet int he current US climate.
Consumers will move to smaller, more efficient regular unleaded fueled cars before going the diesel route. That’s just a fact in the US.
SAABUSA is smart to wait it out until demand for diesel equipped cars become a reality in the US. They couldn’t sell enough of 9-3TTiDs in the US to even justify the cost of making them EPA compliant. Heck, SAAB is having a hard time selling its current, gas powered car lineup-forget about making a possible fatal marketing mistake by offering diesel equipped 9-3s.
I fully expect to see E85 SAABs in the US before a turbodiesel SAAB.
E85 Saabs don’t get GREAT fuel milage…which is what consumers WANT. they talk about going “green”, but to the average shmoe that means “i want better fuel milage!”
If GM and Ford want the japanese and germans to beat them to the marketand steal potential sales… MISSION ACCOMPLISHED.
Dan - you are absolutely right. E85 won’t sell in the US because of the mileage hit. If GM brings them here they will flop.
Diesels, on the other hand, will because one can justify the cost of diesel fuel with increased MPG.
I don’t see why GM would have trouble selling diesel powered SAABS in the US. Has VW had any trouble selling diesels in the US? Did VW need to offer incentives to move their TDI diesels? Not that I recall.
I suspect that the problem lies in spending development money in a power plant that may be in the middle or end of its production life.
E85 is not the fuel economy solution, but it does offer two things-”reduced” reliance on oil, and more importantly-a performance benefit.
With SAAB now offering XWD, E85 fueled SAABs can up the HP in the continuing horsepower wars in the luxury market segment.
That the 9-4x’s 2.0T four cylinder will have 300hp on E85 is justification enough to import (E85 models) it to the US. SAAB will h ave a better chance of selling more high performance variants than it will a diesel option in the US. The Biohybrids can’t be too far away, either…so, forget about diesel in the US.
VW doesn’t currently offer any Jetta TDis in the US. The Jetta TDi is due later in 2008.
The Toureg 2-has the V10 TDi at $68k (or a $20k price premium over the V8 FSI) gets only 20% better city fuel economy in the city, about 15% better highway (15/20 versus 12/17) over the V8 FSI.
http://www.vw.com/touareg/completespecs/en/us/
Combine that with diesel prices higher than premium unleaded and you understand why diesels currently have limited US market appeal.
In fact, the Fuel Economy Guide for 2008 lists only the M-B E320 Bluetech, the GL 320 CDi 4Matic, ML 320CDi 4Matic, the RL320 Cdi 4Matic, The Jeep Grand Cherokee and the VW Toureg 2 as the only diesel currently available in the US (http://fueleconomy.gov/).
With the exception the Jeep, these diesel offerings are not exactly affordable cars “for the masses.”
Which brings me back to my original point-smaller, fuel efficient cars will sell better than diesels, and diesel cars have limited appeal compared to hybrids. SAABUSA would do well to take the “wait and see” approach.
At the biodiesel expo in Orlando recently, I drove VWs 50state Jetta TDI. Very impressive, even with automatic. They plan to sell about 30K in the US starting in August at ~$25K, 2K more than the gas. If they can do it at that price point, and MBs CDI at well over 50K, the market certainly seems ripe in Saabs 30-40K world.
BTW, the one diesel Saab there was also well-recieved.
Fred when was that expo? I didn’t hear anything about it here in Daytona… Otherwise I’d have made my way down… Especially for a diesel Saab!!
I probably wouldn’t buy one, but I’d love to see how it drove!
IMO, E85 is not the answer. The ethanol used in the blend is made from corn. Currently, there are not enough farmlands in North America to support this fuel. Nor does it help us with our reliance problems. Also, E85 has no basis to help manufacturer’s out with the CAFE standards.
The one technology that does is diesel. It would be silly for GM not to start offering diesels.
I see hybrids as nothing more than a trend. From a cost perspective, they don’t offer you much (or any) savings, when compared against a gasoline vehicle, over the life of the vehicle. Where as diesel’s do save you money.
In terms of climate, it got to -40F here this winter and diesel’s still start & work in those temperatures.
Jetta does have diesesl here in the States. I drove behind one last week.
E85 is an absolute wrong way to go as I, for one, wont buy a car that gets worse mileage than a normal car. There is an ethical side to it as well as corn is food - not fuel for cars! I want better fuel economy so what does Saab do? They lag behind the likes of Audi, BMW, MB, Honda (yes even Honda) in the diesel stakes. BMW is bringing over the 335d(iesel) that has more power than a 9-3 Aero so where is Saab’s money going - BioFuel! Lets face it sometimes you just gotta admit you got it wrong folks.
PS diesel fuel is about 20c a litre cheaper here in Canada than regular gas.
VW is due to sell diesels again in the US later this year. MY2005 is the last year VW diesels where sold in the US. I bought gas this morning. In NJ, diesel is 50 cents a gallon more than regular unleaded. My 9-3 gets 32 mpg, say the TTiD gets 40 mpg. It would not be worth it to me to spend an extra $2,000 for the TTiD and spend 50 cents more per gallon, just to get an additional 8mpg. If the TTiD got 50 mpg, then I would take the plunge.